In December of the previous year, South Korea was thrust into a political maelstrom when President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law in the wake of widespread protests. The decision, intended to quell escalating demonstrations over government policies and economic discontent, backfired spectacularly. Lawmakers from the Democratic Party and other opposition factions filed impeachment articles against Yoon, arguing that the extraordinary measure infringed on constitutional rights and threatened democratic norms. The Constitutional Court upheld the impeachment in April, marking only the second time in South Korea’s history that a sitting president was removed from office.
Six Months of Uncertainty
Yoon’s abrupt departure triggered a constitutional requirement for an early presidential election. In the interim, Prime Minister Han Dong-hoon served as acting president, overseeing a caretaker government that struggled to maintain policy continuity. Key legislative initiatives—ranging from economic stimulus packages to foreign policy engagements—remained stalled as both ruling and opposition parties jostled for advantage. This period of uncertainty coincided with significant geopolitical shifts in East Asia, including North Korea’s accelerated missile tests, heightened US-China tensions over trade and technology, and Russia’s growing influence in the Pacific rim.
The Candidates and Their Platforms
Lee Jae-myung: A Liberal Visionary
Lee Jae-myung, 61, emerged as the Democratic Party’s nominee after defeating several high-profile challengers during the party’s primary process. A former mayor of Seongnam and governor of Gyeonggi Province, Lee built his political reputation on progressive economic reforms. His tenure in Seongnam was marked by expanded public health insurance, a pilot universal basic income program for young adults, and support for small businesses.
In Gyeonggi Province, home to nearly one-fourth of South Korea’s population, Lee championed affordable housing initiatives and large-scale infrastructure projects, policies that bolstered his appeal among urban voters. As opposition leader, he led efforts to impeach several of Yoon’s cabinet appointees, further positioning himself as an advocate for government accountability.
During the campaign, Lee branded his platform as “centrist-conservative,” seeking to distance himself from the more ideological wings of his party. Economic policies included tax reforms targeted at large conglomerates (chaebols), enhanced welfare for seniors, and expanded labor protections. On foreign policy, Lee emphasized balancing ties with both the United States and China, proposing increased diplomatic engagement with Beijing to revive economic cooperation. His stance on North Korea combined a willingness to resume dialogue with a steadfast commitment to denuclearization, signaling both pragmatism and principle.
Kim Moon-soo: A Conservative Contender
Kim Moon-soo, 62, entered the race as the People Power Party’s standard-bearer. A former governor of Gyeonggi Province (2018–2022) under the conservative banner, Kim led efforts to attract foreign direct investment and pursued deregulation measures aimed at bolstering small and medium-sized enterprises. His primary campaign focused on restoring economic growth and reinforcing the US-South Korea security alliance.
Kim emphasized a tough posture toward North Korea, advocating for intensified sanctions coordination with Washington and tighter alignment with Japan on regional security issues. On trade, he pledged to negotiate tariff relief with the United States, particularly in steel and auto sectors, which faced punitive levies under the Trump administration’s trade policies. Domestically, Kim pledged to repeal portions of the previous government’s “led by the left” welfare expansions, arguing they risked ballooning the national debt.
Election Day and Voter Turnout
A Momentous Turnout
With Yoon’s impeachment still fresh in public memory, voter turnout soared to 81.3 percent—one of the highest in South Korean history. Polling stations across all 253 electoral districts opened at 6 a.m., and by the evening, lines of voters waiting to cast ballots extended for blocks around government buildings in downtown Seoul.
Exit polls projected a comfortable lead for Lee as early as 7 p.m. local time. By 11 p.m., with 99.8 percent of precincts reporting, Lee had secured 49.4 percent of the vote, compared to Kim’s 41.2 percent. Third-party candidates—including the progressive Justice Party’s Sim Sang-jung and independent libertarian Ahn Cheol-soo—splintered roughly 8 percent of the vote but played no decisive role in the outcome. Kim conceded defeat in a short speech from his campaign headquarters, congratulating Lee and urging national cohesion.
Post-Election Reactions
Domestic Euphoria and Skepticism
Lee’s victory was met with jubilation among his supporters, especially in liberal strongholds such as Busan and Gwangju. Crowds gathered in front of the National Assembly chanting “Social Justice!” and “Reform now!” as broadcasts aired highlights of Lee’s acceptance speech.
However, the election also exposed deep political fissures. Conservative-leaning constituents voiced fears that Lee’s policies would undermine South Korea’s alliance with the United States and tilt the country too far toward Beijing’s orbit. Social media platforms became battlegrounds for heated debates over economic inequality, generational divides, and the nation’s role in a fractious global order.
International Responses
United States
In Washington, the White House issued a cautious statement congratulating Lee on his “energetic campaign and decisive win.” President Donald Trump—already at odds with Seoul over tariffs and troop contributions—tweeted: “Congratulations to Lee, but we will talk tough on trade and defense. Always a great ally, but must see fair play for America.” Pentagon officials said they looked forward to briefing Lee’s transition team on joint military exercises and “enduring commitment” to the security of the Korean Peninsula.
China
Beijing’s foreign ministry spokesman welcomed Lee’s victory as an opportunity to “deepen friendly cooperation and mutual trust.” Analysts noted that China had been increasingly frustrated by Yoon’s alignment with Washington, including his support for Huawei sanctions and enhanced trilateral talks with Japan. Lee’s calls to “reset relations” were interpreted in Beijing as positive signals, although state-run media also cautioned against “reckless’ overtures that could sour ties with Washington.
Japan
Tokyo adopted a neutral posture. While Japan welcomed the restoration of political stability in Seoul, it remained wary of any South Korean initiatives that might reopen historic disputes over wartime labor and territorial claims. Officials in Tokyo pledged to reach out to Seoul “in the spirit of reconciliation” but emphasized that “past grievances cannot be overlooked.”
North Korea
In Pyongyang, state media celebrated Lee’s win as further proof of South Korea’s political volatility. Commentators mocked Yoon’s impeachment and asserted that Lee’s “pro-dialogue stance” would vindicate Kim Jong-Un’s refusal to negotiate unless his nuclear program received recognition. Despite Lee’s public overtures toward resuming inter-Korean dialogue, North Korean officials have shown no indication of reciprocating.
Key Challenges for the Lee Administration
Economic Headwinds
Slowing Growth and Demographic Pressures
South Korea’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for 2025 dropped to a mere 1 percent, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Exports—formerly the engine of Korean prosperity—have contracted as global demand softens and trade tensions rise. An aging population further weighs on the economy: more than 20 percent of South Koreans are now over age 65, triggering soaring social welfare expenditures and a shrinking workforce.
Lee’s economic platform must contend with persistent youth unemployment (hovering around 10 percent), rising household debt, and a property market that, despite price corrections in Seoul, remains unaffordable for many millennials. His proposed “job guarantee” and expanded welfare measures face criticism from conservatives who warn of budgetary deficits and disincentives to work. Finding a balance between stimulus and fiscal responsibility will be an early litmus test for his leadership.
Trade and Industry: Navigating Trump’s Tariffs
Steel and Auto Tariffs
On the day of Lee’s inauguration, President Trump is set to double steel and aluminum tariffs from 25 percent to 50 percent, citing national security concerns. In addition, a 25 percent levy on imported Korean automobiles remains in place, alongside a 10 percent blanket duty on other goods. Negotiations between U.S. and South Korean trade representatives have stalled for months.
Key industries—ranging from Hyundai Motor and Kia Corp. to POSCO steel—reported an 8 percent drop in exports to the United States in May 2025 compared to the previous year. The Trump administration has also suggested that U.S. troop levels on the peninsula are “too high” given the diluted security threat since the end of the Korean War.
Lee’s Task Force on Trade and Economy
Lee has pledged to convene an emergency task force within his first 48 hours in office. Composed of trade negotiators, industry leaders and economic advisers, the task force’s goal is to assess South Korea’s leverage in bilateral negotiations. Lee has publicly stated that Seoul will not rush into concessions but will “firmly defend the interests of Korean workers and business owners.” With his characteristic pragmatism, he hinted at potential retaliatory measures—though any tit-for-tat risks deepening the downturn in industrial output.
Alliance Under Strain: Defense and Diplomacy
The U.S.-South Korea Security Umbrella
Lee has repeatedly affirmed that the U.S.-ROK alliance is “the foundation” of both national security and regional stability. Yet his desire to reduce friction with Beijing raises questions in Washington. While Yoon had embraced initiatives such as the Quad (United States, Japan, India, Australia) and supported multilateral freedom-of-navigation exercises in the South China Sea, Lee advocates a more independent regional posture.
Troop Withdrawal Debate
U.S. forces on the Korean Peninsula number roughly 28,500, with bases in Pyeongtaek, Daegu and Camp Humphreys. Trump has argued that South Korea should pay more for hosting troops or face a reduction in American soldiers. Lee must carefully navigate this debate: acquiescing to deep cuts could embolden North Korea, while resisting Trump’s demands risks invoking economic retaliation.
Balancing U.S. and Chinese Interests
China is South Korea’s largest trading partner—accounting for nearly a quarter of total exports—and home to eleven of the top fifteen foreign direct investors in Korea. Yet Beijing’s strategic alignment with Moscow and its recent closer ties to Pyongyang complicate any simple rapprochement. In contrast to some prior liberal presidents who prioritized engagement over alliance, Lee positions himself as a “pragmatist.” He asserts that national interest dictates cooperation with both superpowers wherever possible, yet he has avoided firm commitments on U.S.-led Indo-Pacific initiatives and remains circumspect on potential support for Taiwan in the event of a cross-strait crisis.
North Korea: A Changing Threat Environment
Nuclear and Missile Advances
Since Lee’s last presidential bid in 2022, Kim Jong Un’s regime has tested over 80 missiles—including intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the continental United States—and declared that nuclear weapons are a permanent “shield” against foreign aggression. North Korea’s military alliance with Russia, manifested by joint exercises and Pyongyang’s alleged deployment of specialists to support Russia’s war in Ukraine, underscores an increasingly multipolar alignment.
Talks Versus Sanctions
Lee campaigned on resuming dialogue with Pyongyang, akin to the “Moon Jae-in era” (2017-2022), which saw several inter-Korean summits and a landmark meeting at the DMZ. Lee argues that sanctions alone cannot solve the nuclear deadlock; a calibrated approach—offering humanitarian aid in exchange for verifiable denuclearization steps—might break the logjam. However, Washington remains skeptical, demanding “complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization” as the sole precondition for sanctions relief.
Public Opinion and Parliamentary Control
While Lee’s Democratic Party now holds a comfortable majority in the National Assembly, public sentiment on rapprochement with North Korea is deeply divided. Younger voters, bearing vivid recollections of their grandparents’ experiences under authoritarian regimes, are more receptive to engagement than older generations scarred by Cold War hostilities. Balancing these domestic pressures with the unyielding stance of U.S. negotiators will test Lee’s diplomatic skills.
Domestic Policy Priorities
Healing Political Rifts
Political Polarization Run Amok
The impeachment crisis heightened mistrust between conservative and liberal camps. In recent years, street protests—over housing affordability, gender equity and social justice—have grown increasingly fractious. Lee’s administration faces the monumental task of bridging these divides by appointing cross-factional leaders to key ministerial posts and launching “National Dialogue Forums” to solicit citizen input on contentious policy areas.
Economic and Welfare Reforms
Welfare Expansion and Universal Basic Income Pilot
Drawing from his record in Gyeonggi Province, Lee plans to roll out a phased basic income program for citizens aged 19 to 29, supplementing existing youth employment grants and tuition relief measures. Additionally, he will expand child care subsidies and increase pensions for elderly, low-income households—policies aimed at addressing demographic decline and rising inequality.
Fiscal Challenges
Unlike previous administrations flush with trade surpluses, Lee inherits a fiscal environment constrained by high public debt—estimated at 51 percent of GDP—and rising interest rates. His promise to expand social safety nets must be balanced against the need to maintain credit ratings and avoid sharp tax hikes. Economists warn that without structural reforms—such as liberalizing the labor market, reforming pension systems and encouraging higher birth rates—the welfare expansions risk exacerbating debt burdens.
Environmental and Energy Policy
Green New Deal Ambitions
Climate activists have lauded Lee’s pledge to accelerate South Korea’s transition away from coal. He intends to shut down 15 of the country’s largest coal-fired power plants by 2035, invest heavily in offshore wind and solar farms, and incentivize electric vehicle adoption by subsidizing up to 70 percent of EV purchase prices for low- and middle-income families.
Energy Security Dilemma
Shifting to renewables presents challenges. South Korea relies on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) and nuclear power for over 80 percent of its electricity generation. Lee must calibrate the pace of nuclear power phase-outs—proposed under Yoon’s administration—against the costs of new renewables infrastructure and potential supply shortfalls. Moreover, ensuring grid stability during intermittent renewable generation remains a technical hurdle requiring urgent R&D investments.
Prospects for the Next Four Years
A “Pragmatist” in a Polarized World
Lee’s self-described pragmatism may prove both his greatest asset and his most precarious balancing act. On one hand, his willingness to engage China and modest hawkishness toward Pyongyang could stabilize relations across Northeast Asia. On the other, an unpredictably transactional approach risks alienating U.S. policymakers and further straining the alliance at a time when Washington seeks demonstrable solidarity against Beijing’s regional assertiveness.
Domestic Cohesion and Economic Revitalization
If Lee can effectively restore political stability—constructing a consensus on tax reform, welfare expansion and environmental policy—he might revitalize South Korea’s economic dynamism. Public support, buoyed by ambitious social spending and a credible blueprint for reducing inequality, could counterbalance any short-term disruptions caused by trade frictions or diplomatic recalibrations.
The Road Ahead: High Stakes and High Expectations
Inauguration Day and Beyond
On June 5, 2025, Lee Jae-myung will be formally sworn in at the National Assembly. Amid celebrations, few in the crowd will forget that just half a year earlier, the nation teetered on the brink of constitutional crisis. As Lee affixes his signature to the presidential seal, South Korea stands at a crossroads: forging a path between superpowers, countering an emboldened North Korean regime, and healing deep domestic rifts—all while revitalizing an economy battered by global headwinds.
An Uncertain—but Promising—Future
Lee’s presidency begins under extraordinary conditions. The impeachment of his predecessor set a precedent for democratic accountability, but also underscored how fragile political stability can be. Now armed with legislative control, Lee must demonstrate that “center-conservatism” can unify rather than divide, that economic reforms can spur growth without fueling debt, and that a strategically hedged foreign policy can safeguard both security and prosperity.
If Lee Jae-myung succeeds, his presidency could inaugurate a new era of pragmatic reform—restoring confidence in democratic institutions, mending frayed alliances, and forging an innovative economic model attuned to demographic and environmental realities. If he falters, South Korea risks plunging deeper into polarized conflict and economic stagnation.
The next four years will test whether Lee’s vision can deliver on the lofty expectations of a nation that repeatedly demonstrated its yearning for change. In Seoul’s crowded streets, cell-phone cameras flashed as Lee’s victory became official. Behind those flashes, however, lay the heavier burdens of governance: re-knitting social trust, revitalizing an ailing economy, and charting a course through the stormy geopolitics of our times. Only time will tell whether Lee Jae-myung’s centrist-conservative gamble can redefine South Korea’s future—or whether it will succumb to the same centrifugal forces that toppled his predecessor
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