Israel’s recent air strikes on Iranian nuclear sites—and Iran’s retaliatory missile launches—mark a decisive shift in the balance of power across the Middle East. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu demonstrated his willingness to act unilaterally, defying even President Donald Trump’s entreaties to hold off until after planned US-backed negotiations on a new nuclear deal with Tehran.
Eroding US Influence
While the Trump administration had pursued a diplomatic track—securing a short-lived Gaza ceasefire in January and seeking renewed nuclear talks—Washington proved unable to restrain Israel’s military decision-making. In the hours before the attack, Trump cautioned, “As long as I think there will be an agreement, I don’t want them going in.” Within hours, Israeli aircraft struck key Iranian sites anyway, underscoring a transformation: the United States, long the region’s dominant power broker, has become more of a spectator.
Netanyahu’s Brand of Strength
For Netanyahu, projecting decisive strength against Iran aligns with his domestic political brand. Since October 2023, he has steered Israel through simultaneous conflicts on seven fronts—Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, the West Bank, and now Iran. Public support in Israel for a forceful posture against Tehran remains robust, even as humanitarian consequences mount in Gaza and beyond.
Iran’s Waning Regional Reach
The strikes and assassinations of senior Iranian and proxy leaders—most notably within Hezbollah and Hamas—have significantly weakened Tehran’s regional footing. Once the world’s most formidable non-state militia, Hezbollah suffered crippling losses in Lebanon and has been unable to replenish its ranks. Iran’s financial strains and the collapse of its Syrian ally, President Bashar al-Assad, further deprive Tehran of the logistical corridors that once channeled arms to its proxies.
Implications for the Gulf and Nuclear Talks
The renewed hostilities imperil US-led efforts to forge a new nuclear agreement with Iran. Envoy Steve Witkoff’s mission to Oman this weekend aimed to bracket uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief; Israel’s strikes upend that timetable. Even if tensions briefly cool, deep mistrust will complicate any return to substantive diplomacy.
A New Regional Order?
Turkey’s expanding influence—cemented by its role in post-Assad Syria—now rivals Iran’s erstwhile primacy in the Levant. Ankara’s support for rebel factions has supplanted Tehran’s old patronage networks. Meanwhile, Gulf states, alarmed by escalating violence, may reevaluate their security ties to Washington, seeking new partnerships or even rapprochement with Tehran to stabilize their energy-dependent economies.
What Comes Next
Netanyahu’s gambit serves multiple goals: degrading Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, undermining its proxy arsenal, and realigning regional alliances. But his actions carry risks: a wider conflagration, disruption of oil markets, and further erosion of US credibility. As Israel’s airplanes crossed into Iranian airspace without prior US consent, a new era dawns—one in which Israel asserts its strategic autonomy and the United States must choose whether to reassert authority or accept diminished sway in a rapidly shifting Middle East.
READ MORE: Netanyahu’s Long-Awaited Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Sites: Ambition Meets Risk
