Kyiv, Ukraine – As discussions emerge regarding potential negotiations to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, experts warn that the war is not just about territorial gains. Instead, Russian President Vladimir Putin seeks to dismantle the current global security framework and establish a new world order where great powers dictate terms to their neighbors.
Since launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin has repeatedly expressed his ambition for a “multipolar world order,” aiming to reverse the West’s Cold War victory. By challenging established international borders, he seeks to normalize military aggression in global affairs. Analysts caution that if Russia is perceived as successful, it will embolden authoritarian regimes worldwide.
Putin’s Vision for a New World Order
Putin’s push for direct negotiations with the United States—while excluding Ukraine and European nations—highlights his desire to make sovereignty negotiable. Such a precedent could destabilize global security, experts argue, allowing military force to become an accepted method of territorial expansion.
“The world order Putin envisions is one governed by the laws of the geopolitical jungle, where might is right,” said a senior defense analyst. “This would lead to a rise in armed conflicts and economic instability, threatening decades of global prosperity.”
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Putin has also solidified alliances with authoritarian nations such as China, Iran, and North Korea, securing military and economic support. On the domestic front, he has successfully transitioned Russia’s economy into a wartime footing, mitigating the impact of Western sanctions and preparing for a prolonged conflict.
The Need for a Decisive Western Response
Experts argue that to end the war, Putin must be convinced that continuing the invasion will bring disaster for Russia. This requires a comprehensive strategy combining economic pressure and military deterrence.
“Economic hardships alone will not force Putin to negotiate,” said an international relations expert. “He must also be confronted with the reality of military defeat.”
Currently, Ukraine is engaged in a defensive war of attrition. However, with Russia’s significant manpower reserves and high tolerance for losses, this strategy alone may not be sufficient. Military analysts suggest that Ukraine must be equipped with the necessary weaponry to launch successful counteroffensives.
“Western fears of escalation have resulted in a cautious approach, depriving Ukraine of key military assets,” said a former Ukrainian defense minister. “Ukraine needs fighter jets, long-range missiles, and advanced electronic warfare capabilities to secure victory.”
The Broader Geopolitical Stakes
Without decisive action, experts warn that any pause in hostilities would only allow Russia to regroup and prepare for future aggression.
Beyond Ukraine, a weakened international response could embolden other revisionist powers to challenge territorial sovereignty elsewhere. NATO’s credibility and the security of its eastern members remain at stake, with Baltic nations and Poland strengthening their defenses against potential threats.
Economic consequences are also profound. Prolonged instability in Europe disrupts global supply chains, increases energy insecurity, and drives inflationary pressures worldwide. The European Union has responded with stronger sanctions, but critics argue they have not yet reached a level that would force Russia’s economic collapse.
The Path Forward
To prevent future aggression, experts advocate for an expansion of military aid to Ukraine, greater enforcement of sanctions against Russian oligarchs and industries, and a strategic push to isolate Russia diplomatically. Some suggest that a clear roadmap for Ukraine’s eventual NATO membership could serve as a long-term deterrent against Russian expansionism.
“The cost of stopping Russia now is high, but it is far lower than the cost of allowing Putin’s vision for a new world order to succeed,” the defense analyst concluded.
Andriy Zagorodnyuk is chairman of the Center for Defence Strategies and an advisor to the Ukrainian Government. He previously served as Ukraine’s minister of defense (2019–2020).
