At the annual Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on 31 May 2025, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth delivered a stark warning about China’s military ambitions and called on Asian nations to significantly bolster their defence budgets. Hegseth described Beijing as “rehearsing for the real deal” regarding Taiwan and stressed that regional deterrence must be strengthened without delay.
Hegseth, a former Army National Guard helicopter pilot and Fox News host who assumed the Pentagon’s top civilian role under President Donald Trump, framed the Indo-Pacific as America’s “priority theatre” and outlined new joint projects to expand U.S. military cooperation across Asia. He also signalled that the U.S. would persist in deepening its presence in the region even as it sought to moderate commitments elsewhere, emphasizing a “shared burden” approach modeled after recent European defence initiatives .
“Imminent” Threat to Taiwan: A Clear and Present Danger
Preparing for a Potential Invasion
Hegseth’s remarks underscored mounting concerns in Washington that China, under President Xi Jinping, is accelerating preparations for a possible military takeover of Taiwan. “It has to be clear to all that Beijing is credibly preparing to potentially use military force to alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific,” Hegseth told delegates. He pointed to recent Chinese air and naval exercises near Taiwanese airspace and the South China Sea, which analysts interpret as rehearsals for a blockade or full-scale invasion, echoing warnings by U.S. intelligence officials that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is purposefully honing capabilities for precisely such an operation .
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China’s deployment of nuclear-capable H-6 bombers to contested South China Sea outposts and frequent incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone amplify the sense that the island is circled by a “ring of steel,” as described by Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te. Hegseth echoed this assessment, cautioning that the PLA’s massing of amphibious craft, ballistic missiles, and advanced fighter jets represented “more than just saber-rattling” and required a robust regional response .
Europe’s Example: Greater Spending, Shared Burden
Drawing an explicit parallel to NATO’s recent spending surge, Hegseth encouraged Asian partners to emulate Europe’s commitment to defence self-sufficiency. He noted that, following President Trump’s 2024 push for European nations to meet and exceed 2% of GDP in defence outlays—some even aiming for 5%—the United States can now pivot resources toward the Indo-Pacific .
“Deterrence doesn’t come on the cheap … time is of the essence,” Hegseth stressed, urging Asian capitals to “upgrade their own defences” and “share the burden” as European allies have begun doing .
Citing data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Hegseth acknowledged that Asian defence spending is already on the rise—averaging about 1.5% of GDP region-wide—but argued that “more is needed” to counter China’s growing military machine. The IISS’s recent report notes that between 2021 and 2024, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and several Southeast Asian states increased defence budgets by an average of 8–10 percent annually, but this remains insufficient when measured against PLA modernisation plans that allocate over 2.5% of China’s GDP toward military development .
U.S. Commitments and Joint Projects
Expanding Infrastructure in Australia
Hegseth announced a suite of new joint initiatives aimed at enhancing logistics, sustainment, and interoperability with Indo-Pacific allies. Foremost among them is the first-ever live-fire test of a U.S. mid-range missile system on Australian soil, scheduled for later this year. The live-fire demonstration will employ precision-capable intermediate-range munitions under the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) umbrella, marking a milestone in U.S.-Australia military integration .
“Conducting a live-fire test here in Australia not only cements our shared commitment to deterrence but also sends a clear signal to Beijing that any aggression toward Taiwan will be met by a collective response,” Hegseth said.
Additionally, the Pentagon will establish a repair capability and capacity program for P-8A Poseidon maritime surveillance aircraft in Darwin, upgrading Australia’s existing maintenance infrastructure to service both RAAF and U.S. Navy fleets. This initiative builds upon previous agreements enabling Australia to host U.S. Navy aircraft repairs—originally limited to emergency support—transforming it into a permanent logistics node for broader deployments across the Western Pacific.
Expanded Ship Repair and Joint Exercises
The U.S. Navy has also contracted Australian shipyards in Perth and Cairns to expand facilities capable of servicing Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, Littoral Combat Ships, and Virginia-class submarines. This strategic arrangement aims to reduce sustainment timelines from weeks to days, ensuring forward-deployed assets remain mission-ready.
Hegseth noted that joint multi-domain exercises with the Royal Australian Navy, Royal Australian Air Force, and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command would intensify, simulating complex scenarios—amphibious landings, anti-submarine warfare, and cyber defense—designed to counter evolving Chinese tactics in the South China Sea.
The U.S.–China Dynamic: Respectful but Unwavering
Despite his forceful rhetoric, Hegseth was careful to emphasise that the United States does not seek conflict with the People’s Republic of China.
“We respect China and its civilisation,” he said, “but we will not be pushed out of this critical region. We do not seek to ‘instigate, subjugate or humiliate’ China. But we must ensure international norms are upheld.” .
In a pointed reference to Beijing’s absence from the summit—no senior Chinese defence official attended—Hegseth quipped, “We are here this morning and, notably, someone else isn’t,” underscoring Washington’s frustration at China’s reluctance to engage in regional security dialogues.
He also responded to French President Emmanuel Macron’s remarks from the previous day, which suggested America’s security “promise might not be so ironclad”—an observation that had raised questions about U.S. reliability among Asia-Pacific partners.
“An alliance cannot be ‘ironclad’ if, in reality or perception, it is one-sided,” Hegseth said. “As allies share the burden, we can increase our focus on the Indo-Pacific—our priority theatre.”.
Regional and Domestic Reactions
Asia-Pacific Allies: Mixed Responses
While Australia’s Defence Minister welcomed Hegseth’s announcements—calling them “critical to maintaining a robust deterrent posture”—other regional leaders tread more cautiously.
- Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida praised the U.S. commitment but reiterated Tokyo’s preference for a “measured approach” balancing defence enhancement with diplomatic engagement.
- India, which has historically maintained a strategic autonomy stance, did not immediately commit to specific spending targets, though New Delhi acknowledged the importance of supporting a “free and open Indo-Pacific” in coordination with Quad partners.
- Singapore and Malaysia, hosting the Shangri-La Dialogue, underscored the need to avoid an arms race, instead calling for confidence-building measures and continued dialogue with China, even as they welcomed civilian-led security initiatives such as the Proliferation Security Initiative and Information Fusion Centre operations.
Domestic U.S. Dissent: Senator Duckworth’s Critique
Following Hegseth’s speech, Senator Tammy Duckworth (D–Illinois), part of a bipartisan congressional delegation in Singapore, expressed reservations about his approach.
“His idea that the U.S. will ‘wrap ourselves around you’—that’s patronising,” Duckworth told reporters. “We don’t need that kind of language. We just need to stand together. The U.S. is not asking allies to choose between the U.S. and China; we need to uphold international norms together.” .
Duckworth also questioned the Trump administration’s overall competence in executing these commitments. “The point of this trip is that it’s not just the Secretary or this administration; there is strong bipartisan support in Congress for the Indo-Pacific,” she said, emphasizing that any policy must be sustainable across administrations.
Trump’s Defence Budget and Golden Dome Plans
Hegseth reiterated that the Trump administration plans to increase the U.S. defence budget to US$1 trillion for fiscal year 2026—a 13% jump over 2025 expenditures. He outlined allocations for advanced missile systems, hypersonic weapons, and the contentious ”Golden Dome” naval platform program—designed to equip aircraft carriers with intermediate-range ballistic missiles.
“We will not seek to pressure allies to embrace or adopt any ideology—our goal is peace and prosperity,” Hegseth said, while pledging that the U.S. would “take back the Panama Canal” to support hemispheric security—a comment that drew astonished reactions from some Pacific diplomats.
Critics in Washington, including Budget Committee members, warn that ballooning defence outlays could crowd out domestic priorities. Nonetheless, Hegseth defended the increase as essential to deterring not only China but also the growing spectrum of global threats.
Path Forward: Strengthening the Quad and Beyond
Hegseth proposed deepening the Quad framework—comprising the U.S., Japan, Australia, and India—by expanding joint maritime patrols, integrated logistics nodes, and information-sharing mechanisms. He also advocated for creating a regional maritime coordination centre in Singapore to deconflict operations in the South China Sea and ensure freedom of navigation.
“We do not seek to pressure partners; we seek to partner where interests align,” Hegseth explained. “We aim for a ‘doughnut defence’: robust U.S. capabilities at the center, supported by wider rings of allied strength.”
He encouraged ASEAN members to formalize Defence Technology Transfer agreements with the U.S. to co-develop capabilities such as unmanned surface vessels, advanced radar systems, and secure communications networks—projects that would create jobs and bolster local industrial bases.
Implications: Escalation or Stabilization?
Hegseth’s urgent call for regional rearmament comes amid intensifying U.S.-China rivalry. Proponents argue that only a credible deterrent—anchored by allied burden-sharing—can dissuade Beijing from military adventurism. Critics counter that an arms buildup risks sparking an A2/AD (anti-access/area-denial) cycle, prompting China to accelerate its own weapons modernization and further destabilize flashpoints like the Taiwan Strait.
Analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies caution that any significant defence-spending spike in the Indo-Pacific must be accompanied by robust risk-reduction measures: direct military-to-military hotlines, transparency on force postures, and renewed diplomatic channels such as the U.S.-China Strategic Security Dialogue.
Final Thoughts: A Pivotal Moment for Indo-Pacific Security
As the Shangri-La Dialogue concluded, Hegseth’s address set the tone for an intense summer of strategic planning. His blunt message—“The threat China poses is real, and it could be imminent”—resonates across capitals from Tokyo to Jakarta. The challenge now is whether Asia-Pacific nations will heed his call and invest in their own defences or opt for tentative, incremental adjustments.
For the United States, the task is twofold: reassure partners of unwavering commitment while avoiding an overbearing posture that could alienate would-be allies. In Hegseth’s words, “We do not seek conflict with Communist China. We will not be pushed out of this critical region”—a pledge that underscores both the stakes and the delicacy of U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific.
As Asia confronts an uncertain security environment, the next moves by Canberra, Tokyo, New Delhi, and others will shape the region’s balance of power for decades to come. The question remains: how quickly and decisively will they step up—and will their actions be enough to deter a China that many fear is preparing to strike?
