In the wake of a U.S.-brokered declaration of principles signed in Washington on April 25, optimism abounds that the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda will finally bring stability to the war-torn Great Lakes region. The accord, spearheaded by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio alongside Congolese Foreign Minister Thérèse Kayikwamba Wagner and Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe, simultaneously underscores America’s pivot from oil to critical minerals as the linchpin of its foreign policy. Yet analysts and historians caution that without a broader vision encompassing governance reforms, economic diversification and true partnership, this “minerals for peace” initiative risks repeating the transactional mistakes of past decades.
1. Shifting Sands: From Oil to Cobalt and Copper
A Doctrinal Shift in American Statecraft
For much of the 20th century, U.S. diplomacy in Africa—particularly in the Congos—followed the oil. Today, it follows cobalt, copper and other minerals deemed critical for electric vehicles, quantum computing and advanced weaponry. The recent accord builds on the Trump administration’s precedent-setting minerals deal with Ukraine, which granted the United States preferential access to Ukrainian mineral reserves in return for reconstruction support. In this emerging paradigm, Washington seeks to secure strategic resources directly through diplomatic engagement rather than relying solely on market forces.
The Strategic Prize of the DRC
The DRC boasts the world’s largest cobalt reserves and vast copper deposits—together estimated at over $24 trillion in situ value. As China controls roughly 80 percent of Congo’s cobalt output through firms like China Molybdenum Company Limited and Zijin Mining, the United States perceives Kinshasa as the key to balancing global supply chains. U.S. officials have pledged “significant investments … facilitated by the U.S. government and private sector” to develop Congolese mining under American oversight, challenging China’s dominance.
2. The Historical Echoes of Transactional Engagement
Lessons from the Cold War
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Washington’s relationship with the Congos has long been transactional. During World War II, Belgian Congo uranium fueled the Manhattan Project; in the Cold War era, the U.S. aided Mobutu Sese Seko’s coup against Patrice Lumumba in 1961, valuing cobalt and uranium access over democratic governance. Mobutu’s subsequent 32-year kleptocracy entrenched corruption and institutional decay—an enduring legacy still haunting the DRC. Today’s deal could repeat that pattern if mineral access again eclipses human development and rule-of-law priorities.
The Mercenary Question
Reports that Erik Prince’s private military company is negotiating to secure mining sites echo past reliance on foreign mercenaries. Congo’s government has already hired Bulgaria-based Agemira and Romanian-led Congo Protection to fight the Rwandan-backed M23 rebels, with mixed results—nearly 300 Romanian mercenaries surrendered en masse in January. Outsourcing security to profit-driven actors risks replicating the “resource warlord” dynamics that fueled conflict in the 1990s.
3. The Geopolitical Context: China as Principal Rival
Beijing’s Entrenchment in Congo
Chinese companies dominate Congo’s mining sector and its bilateral trade. Arizona-based Freeport-McMoRan’s exit in 2020 left Chinese firms firmly in control, while U.S. commercial presence remains negligible aside from start-ups like KoBold Metals. This imbalance has fueled Congolese discontent over environmental damage, poor labor conditions and opaque profit-sharing arrangements—providing an opening for U.S. diplomatic competition.
The New Great Game in Critical Minerals
As the world shifts to renewable energy, cobalt and copper have become strategic resources. The United States sees mineral diplomacy as central to its competition with China, aiming to secure supply lines that underpin next-generation technologies and national security. Yet without addressing China’s deep investments in infrastructure and local partnerships, Washington risks overpromising and underdelivering.
4. Balancing Security Guarantees and Resource Access
The Limits of Military Assistance
Although President Félix Tshisekedi has sought U.S. military support against M23 rebels in exchange for mineral access, the U.S.-Ukraine precedent suggests limited follow-through on security guarantees. Kyiv secured a minerals deal without binding U.S. defence commitments, indicating that Washington may once again prioritize resource diplomacy over troop deployments or arms transfers—leaving Kinshasa vulnerable to continued rebel advances.
The Dilemma of Conditionality
If U.S. assistance is tied strictly to mineral concessions, Tshisekedi’s government may face domestic backlash for perceived loss of sovereignty. Effective diplomacy must therefore strike a balance: offering genuine security cooperation while ensuring that mineral-development agreements enhance, rather than undermine, Congo’s territorial integrity and citizens’ welfare.
5. Toward Inclusive Economic Development
Avoiding the “Resource Curse”
The DRC’s wealth has too often translated into elite enrichment rather than broad-based growth. To avert this, Kinshasa must articulate a clear industrial strategy—leveraging mineral revenues to diversify into value-added processing, agriculture and manufacturing. This requires robust anti-corruption measures, strengthened regulatory frameworks and public-private partnerships that prioritize job creation and infrastructure.
The Role of a Sovereign Wealth Fund
A properly governed sovereign wealth fund—akin to models in Norway or Botswana—could channel mineral profits into health care, education and infrastructure. Such a mechanism would safeguard against revenue misappropriation and provide intergenerational equity, ensuring that today’s resources finance tomorrow’s development.
6. Building U.S. Commercial Diplomacy and Capacity
Beyond Traditional Aid
To foster genuine partnership, U.S. policy should pivot from short-term aid to long-term capacity building. This means facilitating technology transfer, training Congolese geologists and engineers, and supporting local entrepreneurship in mining services. The goal is to create an ecosystem in which Congolese firms and workers capture greater value rather than merely exporting raw ores.
Strengthening Supply-Chain Resilience
American companies entering the DRC must adhere to high environmental and labor standards, promoting responsible mining practices. A transparent traceability framework—potentially leveraging blockchain—could assure end-users that Congolese minerals meet ethical and sustainability criteria, bolstering global market confidence.
7. Fostering Good Governance and Civil Society Engagement
Reinforcing Democratic Institutions
Long-term stability depends on rule-of-law reforms: an independent judiciary, transparent public procurement and effective anti-corruption bodies. U.S. diplomatic efforts should condition portions of financing and technical assistance on measurable governance benchmarks.
Empowering Local Communities
Inclusive development requires community consultation and benefit-sharing agreements for mining projects. Mining companies—whether Chinese, American or Congolese—must invest in local infrastructure, health care and education, and respect land rights to mitigate conflict and build social licence.
8. A New Model of Strategic Partnership
Mutual Prosperity and Respect
The best-case scenario envisions a U.S.-DRC partnership grounded in mutual respect, shared vision and equitable economic exchange. By aligning American strategic interests with Congolese development priorities, both nations can achieve sustainable prosperity and regional stability.
A Path Forward
While the “minerals for peace” deal holds promise for ending conflict—particularly if it includes robust security cooperation—it must be the first step in a comprehensive strategy. Only by embedding resource diplomacy within a framework of governance reform, economic diversification and capacity building can the DRC truly capitalize on its mineral wealth and the United States secure a reliable, ethical supply of critical resources.
Conclusion: A Call to Aim Higher
As demand for critical minerals surges in the green-energy transition and the AI revolution, the DRC’s stability is a global imperative. Military assistance and extractive deals may provide temporary relief, but they cannot substitute for enduring peace, good governance and shared economic growth. The United States and the DRC must seize this pivotal moment to forge a strategic partnership that transcends transactional bargains—one rooted in fairness, foresight and genuine collaboration for the benefit of both nations and the world.
