In Short:
- Ecuador’s presidential election will go to a second round after Daniel Noboa and Luisa González received nearly identical vote percentages.
- Noboa’s security policies and economic strategies face a strong challenge from González’s emphasis on social spending and crime reduction.
- The run-off election is set for April amid a backdrop of gang violence and economic instability.
What’s Next?
The unexpectedly close results mean a highly competitive second round, contrary to earlier polls predicting a decisive Noboa victory.
Noboa’s Security Focus and Public Support
Daniel Noboa, the incumbent centre-right candidate, has built his campaign on tackling Ecuador’s severe gang violence. Under his leadership, emergency measures deployed the military to curb crime, a strategy that many supporters credit for improved safety.
“He has brought us a certain stability,” said Fernanda Iza, 45, a Noboa supporter. “There are many problems still pending, but I hope he continues with his plan.”
Despite these efforts, violent crime remains a major concern. While homicides dropped slightly in 2024, 750 killings were reported in January 2025 alone.
González Promises Change
Luisa González, a protégé of former President Rafael Correa, has positioned herself as a progressive alternative. While she agrees on military action against crime, she has criticized Noboa’s inability to boost the economy and lower fuel prices.
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Her supporters believe she offers a new approach.
“Why is there crime? There is poverty. There is hunger,” said Gonzalo Cajas, 46. “There should be someone who is really aware of Ecuadorian workers.”
Challenges for the Next President
Ecuador faces rampant gang violence, economic struggles, and an energy crisis. Drug cartels continue battling for control of trafficking routes, while blackouts of up to 14 hours plagued the nation last year.
Noboa has pledged job creation, investment, and renewable energy expansion, while González stresses economic reform and poverty alleviation.
With polarization running high, voter frustration is evident.
“The last thing we want is a second round and more expenditure of resources,” said Gabriela Cajo, 39. “There will be tremendous opposition to whoever wins. Once again, we will have to choose who is the least worst.”
Whoever prevails in April will face the daunting task of restoring stability to Ecuador.
