The much-anticipated final of the 2025 ICC Champions Trophy is set to take place in Dubai, where India will face New Zealand in a high-stakes clash. India enters the final as the only unbeaten team in the tournament, whereas New Zealand, having played across all four venues, brings a well-rounded experience. This final marks a rematch of their group-stage encounter, where India emerged victorious. With both teams possessing strengths and weaknesses, the battle for the championship promises to be an exciting contest.
Team Selection Dilemmas
Both teams face crucial selection decisions ahead of the final. India’s main conundrum revolves around whether to include an additional seamer in place of Kuldeep Yadav. Opting for this change would strengthen their pace attack but would leave them without a wrist spinner to challenge New Zealand’s left-handed batters. On the other hand, New Zealand might consider replacing Will Young, whose form has dipped after his century in the opening game, with another left-hander in Devon Conway to counter India’s bowling attack.
Pitch Report: A Battle Between Spin and Patience
The Dubai surface has proven to be slow and sluggish throughout the tournament, offering assistance to both seamers and spinners. Batters who have demonstrated patience and absorbed pressure have succeeded in accumulating runs. The final will be played on the same pitch as the India-Pakistan match, which displayed characteristics favoring disciplined bowling.
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A significant pattern observed in Dubai is that teams whose spinners dominate tend to win matches. Although the pitch has offered some turn, it is far from a rank turner. Spinners who bowl quick and straight have excelled, and India stands out in this regard. Balls projected to hit the stumps have averaged 20.59, compared to 53.23 for those missing the stumps. Moreover, deliveries clocked at over 90 kph have averaged 25.50, significantly better than those bowled below that mark. India’s spinners have bowled 52.5% of their deliveries above 90 kph, the highest among all teams, while 34.9% of their balls are projected at the stumps—second only to Pakistan. New Zealand is close behind at 33.2%.
| Criteria | Wickets | Average | Strike Rate | Economy Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balls hitting stumps | 17 | 20.59 | 28.7 | 4.30 |
| Balls missing stumps | 13 | 53.23 | 64.5 | 4.95 |
| Balls > 90 kph | 16 | 25.50 | 33.3 | 4.60 |
| Balls < 90 kph | 14 | 45.21 | 56.6 | 4.79 |
Matt Henry: India’s Nemesis in Powerplay
Matt Henry has been a nightmare for India’s top order, especially in the Powerplay. He has taken 10 wickets in 11 innings against India in the first 10 overs, with notable dismissals of Virat Kohli (2/57), Rohit Sharma (2/59), and Shubman Gill (2/62). He was also instrumental in New Zealand’s World Cup semifinal victory over India. However, Rohit Sharma has recently taken a more aggressive approach against Henry, scoring 33 runs off 18 balls in their last two meetings, including three sixes.
While India’s openers have favored attacking starts in this tournament, they might adopt a cautious approach early on to counter New Zealand’s new-ball attack and capitalize later against their less effective middle-over seamers. Henry’s fitness remains a concern after he injured his shoulder in the semifinal, and his availability could be a game-changer.
Spin Challenge for India’s Middle Order
New Zealand’s spin duo, Mitchell Santner and Michael Bracewell, have been in stellar form. However, their main challenge will be containing India’s in-form middle order. Kohli, India’s leading run-getter in the tournament, has historically struggled against left-arm spin. Since 2022, he averages just 26.80 against left-arm spinners and strikes at a modest 73 per 100 balls. Santner has dismissed Kohli thrice in ODIs, and Kohli strikes at only 69.49 against him.
Shreyas Iyer and Axar Patel played crucial roles in India’s group-stage win over New Zealand, rescuing India from a collapse by dominating the Kiwi spinners. Iyer has scored 126 runs against spin in the tournament, while Axar has accumulated 67 runs at a strike rate of 94.36. Their ability to use the crease and sweep effectively has made them formidable against spin.
| India Batters vs Spin in CT 2025 | Innings | Runs | Balls Faced | Strike Rate | Dismissals | Average |
| Shubman Gill | 2 | 42 | 69 | 60.86 | 1 | 42.00 |
| Virat Kohli | 3 | 113 | 153 | 73.85 | 2 | 56.50 |
| Shreyas Iyer | 4 | 126 | 175 | 72.00 | 2 | 63.00 |
| Axar Patel | 4 | 67 | 71 | 94.36 | 2 | 33.50 |
Can Ravindra Bat Deep?
Rachin Ravindra has been one of the standout performers in the tournament, scoring centuries against Bangladesh and South Africa. If he can bat deep into the innings, it will put pressure on India’s spin duo of Axar Patel and Ravindra Jadeja. In the group match, India’s spinners bowled 17 consecutive overs to a right-handed heavy New Zealand lineup, stifling their scoring at just 3.41 runs per over. Ravindra’s presence at the crease would force Rohit Sharma to alter his bowling plans.
Sweeping to Neutralize India’s Spinners
While India’s spinners have dominated in Dubai, one shot that has troubled them occasionally is the sweep. Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Australia successfully used the sweep as a release shot against India’s spinners. However, New Zealand struggled with it in their earlier encounter, managing just 11 runs off 17 sweep attempts. Daryl Mitchell, who usually thrives on the sweep shot, failed to execute it effectively against India’s spinners, resulting in a slow and scratchy 17 off 35 balls.
New Zealand’s Fielding Advantage
New Zealand has set the benchmark in fielding this tournament, boasting an exceptional catching efficiency of 91.1%. India, on the other hand, has been among the sloppier teams, dropping seven catches and missing a stumping. In a game of fine margins, New Zealand’s superior fielding could be the deciding factor.
| Fielding Performance in CT 2025 | Matches | Catches | Drops | Catching Efficiency |
| New Zealand | 4 | 31 | 3 | 91.1% |
| South Africa | 3 | 20 | 4 | 83.3% |
| Australia | 3 | 16 | 5 | 76.1% |
| India | 4 | 21 | 7 | 75.0% |
Final Verdict
With strengths and weaknesses on both sides, the CT 2025 final is set to be a thrilling encounter. India’s spinners hold the key, while New Zealand’s experience, fielding, and adaptability make them formidable challengers. The battle between spin and sweep, powerplay and patience, and sharp fielding versus batting depth will determine the fate of the championship. Will India extend their winning streak, or can New Zealand break the jinx? The answer awaits in Dubai.
