Montreal, Canada — Only months ago, the prospects for Canada’s Liberal Party in the upcoming 2025 federal election seemed grim. Polls indicated a significant 26-point gap between the Liberals and their main rivals, the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre. The mounting challenges facing the Liberals, including an affordability crisis, escalating housing prices, and a lingering public dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s leadership, left many to question the party’s future.
However, in a dramatic political turn, the Liberal Party has narrowed that gap. Recent surveys show the Liberals not only closing in on the Conservatives but, in one instance, even surging ahead of them for the first time since 2021. So, what has led to this resurgence, and what are the key factors driving it?
Trudeau’s Resignation Shakes Up the Political Landscape
One of the most significant events that has shaped this shift is the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The Liberal leader, who has held office since 2015, announced in January that he would step down once a successor was chosen. This announcement, while initially seen as a blow to the party, has become a catalyst for renewed interest and support.
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Trudeau’s leadership had long been under scrutiny, particularly for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, the housing affordability crisis, and rising costs of living. He faced vocal criticism from across the political spectrum, with many Canadians viewing him as out of touch with the struggles of ordinary citizens.
Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, highlighted that the political atmosphere has shifted since Trudeau’s announcement. “Two months ago, the Liberals were on the ropes, and many believed they were politically finished. Now, they are resurgent,” said Bricker. The resignation has removed a polarizing figure from the political equation, and it appears that some voters, initially attracted to the Conservative Party’s calls for change, are now reconsidering their options in light of Trudeau’s departure.
Mark Carney’s Leadership Bid Brings Fresh Energy
Another key factor in the Liberals’ resurgence is the high-profile leadership race to replace Trudeau. Mark Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and a key economic adviser during Trudeau’s tenure, has emerged as the frontrunner to take the reins of the party. Carney’s candidacy has energized the Liberal base, with many seeing him as a fresh and capable alternative to the divisive Trudeau era.
Bricker noted that Carney’s appeal is partly due to his perceived novelty and leadership potential: “Mark Carney has that new car smell about him, and people are really interested in taking a test drive.” With a national media spotlight on the race, which will culminate in a leadership vote on March 9, the Liberals have managed to reinvigorate their supporters and generate significant interest in their platform.
Conservative Struggles to Maintain Momentum
While the Liberals experience a resurgence, the Conservative Party appears to be struggling to maintain its momentum. Poilievre’s hardline opposition to Trudeau had been a cornerstone of the Conservative campaign, but now that Trudeau is stepping down, the Conservative message has lost some of its punch.
Bricker explained that much of Poilievre’s success in recent years stemmed from his ability to vilify Trudeau, casting him as the source of all Canada’s problems. However, with Trudeau’s departure, this narrative is becoming less effective. Poilievre’s attempts to tie Carney to Trudeau’s record, particularly on controversial issues like carbon pricing, have failed to resonate with voters who are increasingly looking for leadership that addresses current challenges rather than past grievances.
The Trump Factor: Heightening Nationalism and a New Focus
Perhaps the most significant factor contributing to the Liberals’ recent resurgence is the rising tension between Canada and the United States, particularly under the leadership of U.S. President Donald Trump. Throughout the early months of 2025, Trump has ramped up his threats against Canada, imposing steep tariffs on Canadian goods and continuing his rhetoric about making Canada the 51st U.S. state.
These actions have stirred widespread anger among Canadians, and a surge of nationalist sentiment has emerged in response to what many view as an increasingly unstable relationship with their southern neighbor. Trump’s rhetoric has become a critical issue in the Canadian political landscape, and political analysts suggest that the 2025 federal election will center on which party is best equipped to navigate these turbulent ties.
Genevieve Tellier, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa, noted that the focus of the election has shifted from internal issues like the Liberals’ governance to external factors, particularly the handling of Canada-U.S. relations. “Before [the focus] was, could the Liberals beat the Conservatives? Now it’s not the case, it’s more about economic leadership, it’s how do you respond to [the] Americans?” Tellier said.
Trudeau’s leadership style, which emphasized unity and a diplomatic approach to U.S. threats, has earned him some praise in the wake of Trump’s aggressive actions. Meanwhile, Poilievre’s combative rhetoric has made some Canadians question whether he can truly unify the country in the face of such external challenges.
The Timing of the Election: Will the Liberals Call It Early?
With the Canadian election looming, the timing of the vote has taken on new significance. While the election must take place by October 20, the Liberal Party, as the party in power, has the option to call an early election.
Experts suggest that an early election could help the Liberals capitalize on their recent momentum and avoid some of the more controversial decisions that may arise once Parliament resumes in late March. “If you call an early election, you don’t have to do all those things,” said Tellier. Given the growing anxiety around U.S. tariffs and other economic issues like inflation and housing, the Liberals may see a narrow window of opportunity to secure a strong mandate.
Looking Ahead: A More Competitive Race
Whatever the outcome of the election, one thing is clear: the political landscape in Canada has shifted dramatically. What once seemed like a clear path to victory for the Conservative Party has now become a much more competitive race, with leadership, foreign policy, and economic issues taking center stage.
“The election is shaping up to be much more competitive than expected,” Sevi said. “With foreign policy, leadership, and economic issues all playing major roles.” As the March 9 leadership vote approaches, all eyes will be on the Liberal Party as it navigates these tumultuous times and looks to reclaim its position in Canadian politics.
