Barnaby Joyce’s announcement that he will not recontest his New England seat at the next election has divided voters across the region. Some residents welcome the possibility of him aligning with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, while others see it as a career-driven move that risks undermining local representation.
The former Nationals leader, once a dominant voice in rural politics, said his relationship with the Nationals had broken down “like a sadness in some marriages.” With speculation mounting over his next move, the electorate finds itself at a political crossroads.
Mixed Reactions Among Voters
Community voices in New England highlight the complex relationship locals have with Joyce. Supporters credit him for being a strong voice for farmers and rural issues. Critics argue his leadership style has been divisive and that joining One Nation would prioritize personal ambition over regional representation.
- Darrell Henry, a Kootingal resident, described Joyce as a good local member, unafraid of controversy.
- Alison McSkimming, from a farming family, said Joyce leaving the Nationals could give him “more of a voice.”
- Kim Thomas, a One Nation supporter since 1998, said she would “love” to see Joyce join Pauline Hanson’s party.
Yet others remain skeptical. Narina Donnelly of Tamworth accused Joyce of putting his career before New England, while Nicholas Ryan suggested the Nationals’ dominance in the seat might mean his departure will matter less than expected.
At the last federal election, Joyce secured more than 52 percent of the primary vote. One Nation, while still trailing far behind, doubled its share to almost 10 percent.
The Nationals Under Pressure
The Nationals’ stronghold in New England faces new pressure as internal rifts surface. Earlier this month, Steven Coxhead, chair of the Tamworth Nationals branch, defected to One Nation. Ten other members reportedly followed.
Coxhead criticized the party for failing rural voters, citing its unwillingness to move away from net zero policies despite grassroots opposition. He said Joyce shares similarities with Pauline Hanson: “He says things a lot of people are thinking.”
This shift reflects broader dissatisfaction in regional Australia, where voters feel alienated by mainstream parties chasing metropolitan support. The Nationals, however, insist they remain resilient.
Key Reasons Behind Voter Division
- Local Representation – Supporters believe Joyce has been a reliable advocate for farmers.
- Controversial Image – Some appreciate his outspokenness, while others see it as damaging.
- Party Shifts – Growing frustration with the Nationals’ leadership has fueled talk of a One Nation surge.
- Electoral Landscape – With Nationals historically dominant, many wonder if Joyce’s exit will truly change outcomes.
Electoral Dynamics: Nationals vs One Nation
| Party/Leader | Primary Vote (Latest Federal Election) | Voter Sentiment in New England | Key Strengths | Key Weaknesses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnaby Joyce (Nationals) | 52% | Strong traditional support | Longstanding rural advocacy | Controversial public image |
| One Nation (Pauline Hanson) | 10% (doubled from previous cycle) | Growing but still minority | Anti-establishment appeal | Limited organizational reach |
| Labor & Liberals | Combined under 30% | Urban-leaning support base | Broader national reach | Weak rural connection |
The table shows the Nationals remain dominant in New England, but One Nation is slowly gaining traction, largely from disaffected conservative voters.
Nationals’ Response and Party Future
Nationals federal president Kay Hull has publicly backed Joyce’s decision, saying it ends a long period of uncertainty. She emphasized the party’s resilience, pointing out that the Nationals have retained all seats since 2007.
Hull dismissed speculation of the party’s decline: “We are strong, we are resilient and we will never let the people of rural, regional and remote Australia down.”
Still, with the rise of One Nation and grassroots dissatisfaction in places like Tamworth, the Nationals may find their once-secure footholds tested. Joyce’s next steps—whether retirement, a move to One Nation, or a return to farming—will carry major consequences for rural politics.
What Comes Next for Barnaby Joyce?
Joyce has not confirmed whether he will retire or align with a new political force. His base remains loyal in parts of New England, but fatigue over his controversies lingers. The electorate, long considered safe Nationals territory, could be reshaped by a broader right-wing realignment if One Nation continues its rise.
The question is whether Joyce’s departure will open the door for change or simply cement the Nationals’ dominance without his larger-than-life presence. For now, his political future hangs in the balance, and so does the direction of conservative politics in regional New South Wales.
Trending FAQ
Q1: Why is Barnaby Joyce leaving the Nationals?
He cited a breakdown in his relationship with party leadership, comparing it to “a sadness in some marriages.”
Q2: Will Joyce join One Nation?
He has not confirmed his plans. However, both local One Nation supporters and defectors from the Nationals say he would be welcomed.
Q3: How strong is One Nation in New England?
In the last election, One Nation doubled its primary vote to almost 10 percent, though still far behind the Nationals’ 52 percent.
Q4: What impact could Joyce’s exit have on the Nationals?
While the Nationals remain strong in rural NSW, internal rifts and defections raise concerns about long-term loyalty.
Q5: Could this shift change national politics?
If Joyce joins One Nation, it could give the party more credibility in rural Australia and increase pressure on the Nationals to reconnect with grassroots voters.
