Barnaby Joyce’s decision not to recontest his New England seat has thrown Australian politics into a storm of speculation. The former deputy prime minister announced he would see out his current parliamentary term but not run at the next election, citing a breakdown with Nationals leadership. His statement immediately triggered rumours that he may defect to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation and pursue a Senate run.
Nationals leader David Littleproud responded swiftly, urging Joyce to remain in the party. He stressed that despite past conflicts, Joyce still had “a contribution to make between now and when he retires.” For Littleproud, the challenge is balancing unity in a divided Coalition while preventing a damaging defection that could cost votes in key rural electorates.
Barnaby Joyce’s Break With the Nationals
Joyce revealed that his relationship with the Nationals had deteriorated significantly since being moved to the backbench after the last election. In a letter to branch members, he said the “atmospherics” of sitting isolated in parliament made him feel like a “discordant note.” This sense of alienation appears to have pushed him to consider “all options” for his political future.
A major sticking point has been climate policy. Joyce has consistently opposed the Coalition’s commitment to net zero emissions, calling for it to be abandoned. His criticism reflects the split between moderates pushing for climate credibility and hardliners who see net zero as politically toxic in regional Australia.
Joyce’s next steps remain unclear, but political analysts suggest three possible outcomes:
- Retirement from politics altogether.
- Remaining in the Nationals until his term ends, then exiting quietly.
- Making a dramatic late-career switch to One Nation to run for the Senate.
Each option carries consequences for the Coalition’s unity and the political landscape in New South Wales and beyond.
Nationals Leadership Response
Littleproud’s comments show a clear strategy: keep Joyce within the fold long enough to prevent upheaval. In an interview, he said, “We want him to stay in the National party… we all will be talking to Barnaby.” His approach suggests a recognition that Joyce still commands loyalty among parts of the Nationals’ base, particularly in rural NSW.
Senior Coalition members, however, expressed concern. Liberal frontbencher Jonathon Duniam warned that if Joyce intends to join another party, he should not continue sitting as a National in parliament. Education minister Jason Clare, speaking from Labor’s perspective, highlighted the Coalition’s internal turmoil, saying they needed to decide whether they wanted to be “Howard or Hanson.”
This reflects the broader identity crisis within conservative politics: whether to appeal to mainstream voters with pragmatic policies or lean into populist rhetoric that energises but also polarises electorates.
One Nation’s Position on Joyce
Pauline Hanson wasted little time signalling openness to Joyce. Ahead of an event in Tamworth, she said she “would, no problems” welcome him into her party. Hanson pointed out that she had discussed such a move with him last year and argued that his views are “more aligned with One Nation than with the Nationals.”
Key areas of alignment include:
- Climate Policy – Both oppose net zero commitments, framing them as harmful to rural economies.
- Regional Voice – Both push for stronger representation of rural Australians, especially against what they describe as city-centric policymaking.
- Populist Messaging – Both appeal to voters frustrated with traditional party structures and perceived elitism in Canberra.
If Joyce joins One Nation, he could lend the party added credibility, particularly in NSW, where his personal profile is strong. For Hanson, recruiting a former deputy prime minister would mark a major political coup.
Table: Comparing Party Positions on Key Issues
| Issue | Nationals (Coalition) | One Nation | Barnaby Joyce’s Stance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Zero Emissions | Officially supports net zero by 2050 | Strongly opposes net zero, calls it unrealistic | Calls for Coalition to dump target |
| Regional Development | Advocates infrastructure and agriculture support | Focuses on rural discontent and anti-globalism | Strong champion for regional interests |
| Immigration Policy | Managed migration with economic focus | Restrictive, critical of high immigration levels | Mixed, sometimes critical |
| Party Discipline | Structured leadership under Littleproud | Personality-driven, less formal hierarchy | Chafes under Nationals’ leadership |
| Electoral Strategy | Traditional Coalition partnership with Liberals | Target disaffected conservative voters | Often appeals directly to rural base |
What Joyce’s Move Means for Australian Politics
If Joyce defects, it would reshape not only the Nationals but also the broader Coalition. A One Nation boost in the Senate could complicate Coalition attempts to position itself as a credible governing alternative to Labor. At the same time, Joyce’s exit from the Nationals would deepen divisions already visible over climate, regional policy, and leadership direction.
For One Nation, however, it would represent a mainstream breakthrough. While Hanson’s party has often been dismissed as fringe, Joyce’s entry would deliver parliamentary experience, credibility, and potentially new voter blocs. It could help bridge the gap between disaffected Nationals voters and One Nation’s populist base.
For voters, the implications are mixed. Supporters may welcome a stronger regional voice that challenges climate targets and urban-centric policies. Critics, however, argue that such a move risks pushing national debate further toward division and away from evidence-based policymaking.
Trending FAQ
Q1: Why did Barnaby Joyce decide not to recontest his New England seat?
He cited a broken relationship with the Nationals’ leadership and a sense of isolation within the party.
Q2: Could Joyce really join One Nation?
Yes. He has left the door open by saying he is considering “all options,” and Pauline Hanson has publicly welcomed the idea.
Q3: What is Joyce’s main policy disagreement with the Coalition?
His opposition to net zero emissions by 2050 has been a persistent point of conflict.
Q4: How has the Nationals leader responded?
David Littleproud has urged Joyce to remain, saying he still has a valuable role to play before retiring.
Q5: What would this mean for One Nation?
It would give Hanson’s party added legitimacy and a higher chance of winning Senate seats, particularly in NSW.
Q6: How does this affect the Coalition overall?
A defection would damage party unity and strengthen the perception of internal instability, potentially weakening the Coalition’s ability to challenge Labor at the next election.
This political saga underscores the shifting dynamics of Australia’s conservative bloc. Joyce’s next move could either cement his legacy as a maverick voice for the bush or redefine the fortunes of One Nation on the national stage. For now, the Coalition waits, knowing the decision of one man could reshape its path to the next election.
