As Australia enters the final days of its tightly contested federal election campaign, Labor maintains a narrow lead across most polls. However, political analysts caution that the true story lies not merely in headline polling figures but in the nuanced battle within individual electorates. According to RedBridge director Kos Samaras, Labor is positioned to potentially form a minority government, with a slim chance of securing a majority, depending on how voters break late in critical seats.
Speaking to Politics with Michelle Grattan, Samaras highlighted that while Labor enjoys a slight edge, the fractured nature of contemporary Australian politics presents unpredictable challenges for both major parties. RedBridge, a political research firm comprised of former strategists from both sides of politics, has been conducting extensive focus groups and polling throughout the campaign. Their findings suggest an evolving electorate increasingly disconnected from traditional party loyalties.
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“At the moment we’re looking at a situation where Labor will end up possibly forming minority government, with an outside chance of majority,” Samaras explained. “This isn’t a simple two-party contest anymore. Voters are making more complex and varied decisions.”
Rise of the Soft Voter and Declining Loyalty to Major Parties
One of the most striking trends to emerge from the 2025 campaign is the rise of the “soft voter” — Australians whose political allegiances are fluid and less grounded in traditional party loyalty. According to Samaras, these voters are not simply switching between Liberal and Labor but are increasingly drifting toward minor parties or independent candidates.
“The best way we can describe soft voters is it’s a permanent state of mind,” said Samaras. “Again, we go back to talking about younger voters here, or those under the age of 45 in particular, who have very low levels of values connection to party politics in this country.”
This generational shift marks a significant departure from previous eras, when a large soft vote could be assumed to swing decisively between the two major parties. Today, many young and middle-aged voters view traditional political institutions with skepticism and seek alternatives that better align with their values and lived experiences.
“Very low numbers of people switch from the majors these days,” Samaras continued. “A lot of political strategists, particularly on the Coalition side, still think they are living in the world of 20 years ago where a large soft vote means people will just transfer their entire support over to the other major party. That no longer is the case.”
Early Voting Surge: A Paradigm Shift in Election Strategy
With more than 2.3 million Australians having already cast their votes by Saturday, April 27 — amounting to more than 13% of eligible voters — early voting has become a defining feature of modern elections. Analyst Antony Green noted that over half a million votes were recorded on the first day of early voting alone, setting a new record.
Samaras observed that despite this trend becoming standard practice, both major parties have been slow to fully adapt their campaigning strategies to accommodate it.
“I would say, we haven’t seen any real evidence of the major parties really understanding the importance of starting early,” he said. “Although I would say Labor did start very early in the beginning of March. But you saw that the Coalition was very late to the game.”
According to Samaras, early voting demands a fundamental rethink of how political parties structure their campaigns. Traditional campaign peaks timed close to polling day no longer align with voter behavior, which now sees millions deciding their vote weeks in advance.
“There’s a way to go before the majors fully wrap their heads around that Australians are now voting very differently, and they need to actually alter their campaign to suit those practices,” he noted.
Albanese Seen as “Least Worst Option” by Disillusioned Electorate
One of the campaign’s dominant narratives has been the lackluster nature of leadership perception among voters. While Labor leader Anthony Albanese has improved his standing over the course of the campaign, voters’ support appears largely driven by a lack of better alternatives rather than genuine enthusiasm.
“The best way we can capture it is they view Anthony Albanese as the least worst option,” said Samaras. “And we can see that in our quantitative analysis as well. Both major parties and both leaders are still in the negative territory but Labor and Albanese have improved their position dramatically, whilst at the same time the Coalition and Peter Dutton’s ratings have actually dropped.”
This dynamic reflects a broader sense of political disillusionment, where voters are increasingly cynical about leadership across the board. The prevailing sentiment is one of frustration and a lack of genuine connection to the political class.
Deep-Seated Cynicism: “They All Lie”
Perhaps one of the most sobering insights offered by Samaras relates to voters’ perceptions of political integrity. According to RedBridge’s research, a significant proportion of Australians believe that dishonesty is endemic among political candidates.
“They all lie. That’s fundamentally what most Australians will tell you,” Samaras said. “They all lie and they don’t live the lives we live. That’s the sort of saying we hear all the time.”
Such cynicism feeds into the broader narrative of political disengagement and rising support for independents and minor parties. Many Australians, particularly younger voters, no longer expect politicians to fully represent their interests or experiences, reinforcing a growing divide between the electorate and the political establishment.
Implications for Australia’s Political Future
The 2025 election, regardless of its final outcome, appears set to accelerate existing trends reshaping Australian politics. With voters increasingly turning away from the traditional binary of Labor and Liberal, the likelihood of future minority governments, a strengthened crossbench, and a more fragmented political landscape grows stronger.
For political strategists, adapting to these realities is no longer optional. Campaigns must address the values and concerns of a more skeptical, independent-minded electorate. Early engagement, authenticity, and policy relevance will become ever more critical as traditional brand loyalty continues to erode.
As Samaras concluded, the future for Australia’s major parties will depend heavily on their willingness to recognize and respond to these profound shifts in voter behavior.
“The ground has shifted,” he said. “And those who don’t move with it will be left behind.”
Conclusion: A Transformative Moment
In the final days before Australians head to the polls, the 2025 election campaign offers a glimpse into a transformed political era. RedBridge’s insights, drawn from thousands of conversations with voters across the country, reveal an electorate less tied to party loyalty, more inclined to skepticism, and increasingly open to alternative political choices.
While Labor may cling to a slender lead and hope to form government, the real story of this election may be the broader reshaping of Australian democracy. The age of rusted-on political loyalty appears to be fading, replaced by a more volatile, more independent, and more demanding electorate.
As Kos Samaras and his team make clear, Australian politics is entering a new and unpredictable chapter — one where flexibility, authenticity, and early engagement may decide who governs, and who merely watches from the sidelines.
