Chinese President Xi Jinping has issued a stark warning against global protectionism, declaring that “trade wars and tariff wars produce no winners” as he began a three-country diplomatic tour in Southeast Asia aimed at countering the economic pressure of US tariffs.
Writing in Vietnam’s Nhân Dân newspaper to mark his arrival in Hanoi on Monday, Xi emphasized the need for regional cooperation and multilateralism. His visit, which will also include rare stops in Malaysia and Cambodia, is part of a broader strategy by Beijing to reinforce its image as a dependable partner amid escalating tensions with Washington.
China Presents Itself as a Reliable Ally
The visit comes in the wake of a global trade war that has deeply shaken markets, particularly in export-reliant Southeast Asia. Washington’s imposition of punitive tariffs—many above 40%—has sparked unease in countries like Vietnam, which was unexpectedly hit with a 46% levy on exports to the United States earlier this year.
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Although the Biden administration temporarily suspended the tariff following backlash and negotiations, the damage to trust and economic planning remains. For China, this instability presents an opening to strengthen economic and diplomatic ties with its neighbors.
“Protectionism leads nowhere,” Xi reiterated in his op-ed, calling on regional leaders to “resolutely safeguard the multilateral trading system, stable global industrial and supply chains, and an open and cooperative international environment.”
His message positions China in stark contrast to what Beijing views as America’s erratic and punitive trade behavior—particularly under former and potentially future President Donald Trump, whose administration has aggressively targeted Asian exports to protect domestic industry.
Vietnam Walks a Diplomatic Tightrope
Vietnam, a burgeoning manufacturing powerhouse in the region, finds itself in a precarious position. The United States is its largest export market, accounting for roughly 30% of the nation’s GDP. However, China is its top import source, providing critical raw materials used to manufacture goods destined for the US.
This dual dependency forces Hanoi into a delicate balancing act. Vietnamese leaders are wary of appearing too aligned with either Washington or Beijing, especially as they attempt to secure tariff relief from the US while also managing vital supply chains with China.
Vietnam’s Deputy Prime Minister Bùi Thanh Sơn said on Saturday that the country expects to sign around 40 agreements with China during Xi’s visit. These span several sectors and are likely to include cooperation in infrastructure development—most notably, a major plan to expand Vietnam’s railway network.
In a parallel article published in Vietnamese state media on Monday, President Tô Lâm echoed a desire to deepen ties with China in the areas of defence, security, and trade.
Yet analysts caution that Vietnam must tread carefully. “Xi’s visit presents both a risk and an opportunity,” said Dr Nguyen Khac Giang, a visiting fellow at the Vietnam Studies Programme of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. “There is an economic lifeline in closer cooperation with China, but too much alignment could antagonize the United States at a time when Vietnam is seeking critical tariff concessions.”
US Tariffs Push Southeast Asia Toward China
Xi’s visit also comes amid broader shifts in Southeast Asia’s economic alignment. Cambodia and Malaysia, which face US tariffs of 49% and 24% respectively, have also initiated negotiations with the Trump administration while exploring ways to enhance trade relations with Beijing.
The sudden imposition of tariffs has left countries scrambling to respond. Vietnam, for instance, has promised the US it will remove all tariffs on American goods and increase imports of US products in a bid to maintain preferential trade status.
At the same time, Hanoi is reportedly preparing to crack down on Chinese goods re-exported from Vietnam to evade US tariffs—a practice that drew sharp criticism from American trade officials.
Despite these concessions, Xi may use his visit to propose alternatives to mitigate US economic pressure. These could include assurances that China will not flood the region with its industrial surplus—a growing concern as Southeast Asian industries struggle to compete with cheap Chinese goods redirected from Western markets.
In addition, China could pledge to boost imports of Southeast Asian products, particularly in agriculture, offering a short-term reprieve for exporters looking to diversify markets.
Regional Geopolitics in the Background
While trade is the focal point of Xi’s tour, broader geopolitical issues loom. The South China Sea, where Beijing has longstanding territorial disputes with several ASEAN countries, remains a flashpoint.
Xi may use the visit to offer reassurances of peaceful dispute resolution—an approach that would enhance China’s image as a stabilizing force, particularly when contrasted with what some Southeast Asian leaders increasingly view as erratic US foreign policy.
“Now we are viewing the US as a global disruptor—that presents China a golden opportunity to be seen as a responsible stakeholder in the region,” Dr Giang said.
Indeed, Southeast Asia has been one of the regions most impacted by the volatility of US trade and foreign policy under recent administrations. With Xi’s arrival, Beijing is hoping to fill a diplomatic vacuum and consolidate influence in its immediate neighborhood.
China’s Strategic Pivot and Long-Term Goals
Xi’s visit to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia forms part of a larger Chinese effort to resist what Beijing perceives as economic encirclement. Washington has made clear its intention to deepen trade ties with regional powers like India, Japan, and South Korea, as well as with Vietnam, to counter China’s influence.
Beijing sees such moves as part of a broader containment strategy and is now actively seeking to solidify bilateral relationships with its closest neighbors before such initiatives take firmer root.
For Vietnam and others, the challenge is avoiding dependence on any one power. While US markets offer vast opportunities, Chinese investment and infrastructure support are crucial for long-term development. The question facing these countries is how to strike a balance that safeguards national interests without becoming pawns in a broader geopolitical struggle.
Conclusion: A Shifting Regional Order
Xi Jinping’s charm offensive in Southeast Asia highlights the shifting economic and political dynamics in the Indo-Pacific region. As US tariffs send shockwaves through fragile economies, China is positioning itself as the more stable and predictable partner.
The visit may yield immediate economic benefits—new trade deals, infrastructure pledges, and diplomatic goodwill—but it also reveals the strategic maneuvering underway as both superpowers seek influence in one of the world’s fastest-growing regions.
For Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia, navigating this complex web of interests will require careful diplomacy, strategic flexibility, and a steadfast focus on national resilience in an increasingly turbulent global order.
