U.S. stocks hovered near record territory on Thursday, driven largely by gains in the technology sector and investor confidence that political gridlock in Washington won’t derail economic momentum. The S&P 500 held close to its all-time high, the Nasdaq composite inched higher, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped slightly in early trading.
Markets moved without the usual Thursday jobs data, delayed by the ongoing federal government shutdown. Investors, however, showed little concern. Historically, shutdowns have had limited market impact unless they drag on for weeks. Even as key economic indicators stall, traders are betting that the Federal Reserve stays on its interest rate path and that the broader economy remains resilient.
Markets Show Resilience Amid Missing Economic Data
The S&P 500 stayed mostly flat through the morning session, while the Nasdaq rose roughly 0.3%, putting it on track for a new record. The Dow fell by about 81 points, or 0.2%. The absence of fresh weekly unemployment claims data — a staple for gauging labor market health — did not rattle investors.
Friday’s monthly jobs report may also be delayed due to the shutdown, raising questions about how policymakers and market analysts will track employment trends. Wall Street is hoping for a labor market that cools just enough to keep the Fed comfortable with lower rates but not so much that hiring pulls back sharply.
Despite that uncertainty, investors appear to be leaning on past experience. Previous shutdowns have typically slowed government operations without triggering immediate economic shock. Even President Donald Trump’s warnings of federal worker layoffs have done little to unsettle trading.
Tech and AI Stocks Drive Investor Optimism
The biggest gains came from technology and semiconductor names, fueled by global news tied to artificial intelligence. OpenAI announced partnerships with major South Korean firms for Stargate, a $500 billion infrastructure initiative intended to accelerate AI capabilities.
Samsung Electronics jumped 3.5% in Seoul trading, while SK Hynix surged nearly 10%. The rally extended to U.S. chip and AI stocks. Advanced Micro Devices gained 2.7%, Broadcom climbed 2.5%, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. rose nearly 1% in its U.S.-listed shares.
Those moves added momentum to a sector already driving much of the market’s gains this year. AI-related investments and optimism about lower interest rates have powered U.S. equities to repeated highs, though analysts warn of overheating in the sector if investor expectations stretch too far.
Shutdown Dampens Data, Not Sentiment
With federal agencies pausing economic releases, investors are navigating without some typical metrics. The missing jobless claims report is particularly important during periods when rate decisions hinge on labor trends. Yet for now, the market is treating the halt as a temporary nuisance rather than a structural concern.
Interest rate expectations remain a key factor. If the labor market appears to slow at a moderate pace — once data resumes — the Federal Reserve may continue cutting interest rates. But without immediate numbers, investors are relying on corporate performance and sector-specific news.
Bond markets showed little reaction. The 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 4.11% from 4.12% the previous day. That modest move suggests no surge in fear or demand for safe-haven assets.
Corporate News Takes Center Stage
With federal data on pause, earnings developments and company announcements steered sentiment. Several high-profile companies made moves that triggered sharp price swings.
Occidental Petroleum dropped nearly 6% after agreeing to sell its OxyChem chemical business to Berkshire Hathaway for $9.7 billion in cash. Investors are watching whether the deal marks one of Warren Buffett’s final major acquisitions as CEO.
Fair Isaac, the company behind the FICO credit score, surged almost 23% after unveiling a new platform that allows mortgage lenders to provide credit scores directly to consumers. The move bypasses major reporting agencies like Equifax, TransUnion and Experian — a shake-up with immediate fallout. TransUnion stock slid more than 11%, Equifax fell nearly 8%, and Experian dropped 3.6% in London.
Global Markets React to AI Developments
The OpenAI partnership announcement triggered broader gains in Asia and Europe. South Korea’s Kospi index jumped 2.7%, lifted by semiconductor heavyweights. European markets were mixed but generally positive. London’s FTSE 100 slipped modestly by 0.2%, while other major European indices recorded stronger gains.
The ripple effect highlights how central AI has become to global investment flows. The promise of multibillion-dollar infrastructure projects, growing demand for next-generation chips and sustained corporate spending has turned AI into a major pillar of global market performance.
Investors Balance Optimism With Caution
The continued rise in AI and chip stocks is fueling debate about whether the sector is entering a bubble. While demand is real and corporate investment remains strong, the speed of the rally has some analysts concerned that valuations are stretching ahead of earnings.
Still, the weight of tech giants in major indices gives them outsized influence. As long as their shares rise, the broader market tends to hold steady or climb — even during political standoffs or data gaps.
Outlook: Markets Watching Fed Moves, Shutdown Timeline
Looking ahead, investors will monitor how the shutdown affects the flow of economic information and whether extended delays impact decision-making. If the government closure lingers, agencies may postpone additional reports used in Fed assessments and corporate forecasting.
Key questions remain about how the job market is adjusting as the economy cools, and how much latitude the Fed has to reduce rates without reigniting inflation. For now, bond yields remain stable and equities continue to lean on strong sector performance rather than macro signals.
Wall Street is betting that political disruptions stay contained and that corporate strength — especially in AI and semiconductors — keeps powering gains. The path forward could shift quickly once labor data returns, but investors appear willing to wait.
Strategic Takeaways for Investors
Professionals watching the market may consider several implications from Thursday’s trading:
- Tech Dominance Remains Intact: AI and semiconductor demand continue driving capital toward the sector, benefiting not only leaders like AMD and Broadcom but also suppliers and global partners.
- Data Gaps Create Opportunity and Risk: The absence of jobless claims and potentially delayed monthly employment figures leave room for miscalculation. Short-term volatility may rise when reports eventually resume.
- Corporate Moves Can Outweigh Macro Headlines: The Fair Isaac and Occidental developments show how company-specific news can rapidly shift valuations — especially when tied to structural changes in their sectors.
- Shutdown Sentiment Is Mellow: Markets generally believe the economic impact will stay limited unless the closure extends or begins to affect consumer confidence or federal spending more directly.
- Interest Rate Hopes Still Anchor Valuations: Investors are assuming rate cuts continue over the coming months. Any surprise from the Federal Reserve could lead to sharper corrections.
Global Coordination Around AI Signals a Long-Term Shift
The surge following OpenAI’s Stargate announcement underscores a broader trend: international cooperation in AI infrastructure. South Korean companies are gaining investor attention as partners in a project designed to accelerate computing capacity and reduce dependence on U.S.-centric supply chains.
This marks a new phase in technology investment, where alliances across regions are expected to influence earnings, supply stability and policy decisions. Investors are watching how these partnerships impact pricing power, R&D spending and competition among chipmakers.
What Could Change the Market Narrative
Several factors could disrupt the current calm:
- Extended Government Shutdown: Longer closures may begin to delay contracts, reduce agency spending and undermine consumer and business confidence.
- Labor Market Surprise: If delayed reports later reveal steeper-than-expected job losses or unexpected wage growth, markets could react quickly.
- Geopolitical Tensions: AI supply chains rely heavily on cross-border cooperation. Disruptions in trade or regulation could cool enthusiasm.
- Interest Rate Policy Shifts: If inflation data — once available again — points to renewed pressure, expectations for rate cuts could fade.
Investors Rely on Patience and Positioning
For now, the absence of clear data has not translated into hesitation. Portfolio managers are using corporate earnings and sector developments as substitutes for traditional signals. The expectation is that once Washington resumes tracking and publishing economic data, trends will align with current market sentiment.
In the meantime, the strong performance of AI-connected stocks gives the market a cushion against uncertainty. Bonds remain steady, and volatility measures have not spiked. Until conditions change, investors appear focused on positioning rather than reacting.
As shutdown politics continue and labor reports wait in limbo, Wall Street’s message is simple: keep an eye on fundamentals, track corporate momentum, and stay aware that once the data returns, sentiment could swing. But for now, confidence — powered by technology — is holding firm.
