Singaporeans are set to vote in a tightly controlled general election on May 3, in what is widely projected to be yet another landslide victory for the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), which has held power continuously since 1959. This year’s poll, however, carries added weight: it marks the first national electoral test for newly-appointed Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, who took over from Lee Hsien Loong in December 2024.
The election arrives at a critical moment for the island nation, with rising inflation and housing costs dominating public discourse. Despite these concerns, the PAP is expected to maintain its supermajority in parliament, thanks in part to a restricted political environment, short campaign period, and significant state control over media and public messaging.
Wong’s Debut in a Challenging Economic Landscape
Lawrence Wong, Singapore’s fourth prime minister and long seen as Lee Hsien Loong’s heir apparent, now faces the challenge of consolidating his leadership in the face of domestic economic anxieties and an increasingly volatile international landscape. The election campaign has lasted just nine days—standard under Singapore’s regulations—but still leaves little time for opposition parties to mount substantial challenges.
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“This election is very important to Lawrence Wong,” said Associate Professor Michael Barr of Flinders University. “If he does poorly, which means a drop in the vote or the opposition picking up more seats, he should be looking over his shoulder.”
However, such an outcome appears unlikely. A YouGov survey conducted in April found that 63% of decided voters planned to cast their ballot for the PAP, while only 15% expressed support for the main opposition Workers’ Party (WP).
Opposition Gains Remain Symbolic Under Restrictive Conditions
The Workers’ Party, which won a historic 10 out of 93 seats in 2020, has set an ambitious medium-term goal of holding one-third of parliament. Party leader Pritam Singh emphasized the importance of political plurality in a campaign video: “We want a Singapore where no matter what your lot in life, you know that you have a political system which can carry your views.”
But Singh’s efforts have been hindered by legal challenges. Earlier this year, he was found guilty of lying under oath to a parliamentary committee and fined SG$14,000—charges that critics argue are politically motivated. He plans to appeal the conviction.
Singaporean human rights groups and international watchdogs have long criticised the PAP for using the legal system to suppress dissent and for maintaining tight controls over freedom of speech and media. According to Dr Barr, “The level of intimidation and the government’s control of the media… means the election is free in the sense that the ballots are likely fairly counted, but it is certainly not fair.”
Indeed, the government recently ordered Facebook to block posts promoting opposition candidates, citing concerns over “foreign interference.” Several Singapore-based political analysts declined to comment publicly on the election for fear of reprisals.
Cost-of-Living Dominates Voter Concerns
Despite the PAP’s projected dominance, voters have expressed growing frustration over the rising cost of living. In the same YouGov survey, 72% of respondents cited cost pressures—particularly on housing and basic goods—as their top issue. The government raised the Goods and Services Tax (GST) to 9% in 2024, a move that opposition leaders have pointed to as evidence of the PAP’s inadequate response to inflation.
Han Hui Hui, a candidate for the minor opposition grouping People’s Alliance for Reform, is contesting the PAP stronghold of Tanjong Pagar. She said voters often express hesitation about supporting non-establishment candidates. “They are scared of voting for the opposition,” she said. “Their defence mechanism comes in: ‘[the opposition] have never run the government, so I can’t vote for them.’”
Nevertheless, Han believes it is crucial to offer voters a democratic alternative. “They just say, ‘Why are you coming here? You will never win this constituency,’” she said. “But if something is so difficult, somebody has to take the first step. I’m willing to be that person.”
Global Economic Headwinds Add to Anxiety
Singapore’s economy, heavily reliant on global trade, has not escaped the geopolitical tensions shaping the world economy. The revival of Donald Trump’s protectionist policies in the United States has spooked Singaporean officials. Deputy Prime Minister and Trade Minister Gan Kim Yong recently warned that a global downturn or new trade war could push the city-state into recession.
“We are facing the most serious challenge to the global rules-based economic order,” Gan said. “We must be prepared for a more protectionist, unstable and fragmented world ahead.”
Although Singapore was only lightly affected by U.S. tariffs under Trump’s previous administration—facing just 10% duties—its dependence on external markets makes it highly vulnerable to shifts in international trade.
Wong Emphasises Stability Over Experimentation
Speaking at a PAP rally this week, Prime Minister Wong framed the election as a choice between proven governance and destabilising uncertainty. “A vote for the opposition is not a free vote for more alternative voices in parliament,” he warned. “It’s a vote to weaken the PAP team… at a time when our country is facing real and serious challenges.”
Such rhetoric reflects a long-standing PAP strategy: appealing to national unity, economic stability, and technocratic competence. Yet it also highlights a reluctance to tolerate even modest opposition growth.
Election Day and Beyond
Singapore’s 2.76 million registered voters are legally required to cast their ballots on Saturday. Polling stations will be closely monitored, and results are expected by early Sunday morning. While the final seat distribution is unlikely to deviate far from previous elections—where the PAP typically secures at least 85% of seats—the symbolic weight of the outcome will matter, particularly for Wong’s leadership trajectory.
Any increase in opposition representation, however modest, may signal shifting undercurrents in Singapore’s tightly managed political landscape. For now, the odds remain heavily in favour of the ruling party, which continues to cast itself as the city-state’s only viable steward through turbulent times.
As candidate Han Hui Hui puts it, “Even if we don’t win, the people must be reminded that there is a choice… and that someone is willing to speak up.”
