In his victory speech early on Tuesday, newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney wasted no time outlining a bold and transformative vision for the country’s future relationship with its largest trading partner, the United States. While election night is typically reserved for celebration, Carney struck a notably somber tone as he reflected on what he described as the end of an era.
“Our old relationship with the United States, a relationship based on steadily increasing integration, is over,” he declared. “The system of open global trade anchored by the United States – a system that Canada has relied on since the Second World War, a system that while not perfect has helped deliver prosperity for decades – is over.”
Carney’s stark message underscored the profound changes he envisions for Canada in an increasingly uncertain global environment, one shaped by political turbulence south of the border and the shifting dynamics of global trade.
Trump’s Shadow Over the Campaign
Carney’s electoral campaign heavily focused on the existential threats posed by Donald Trump’s America. As Trump’s rhetoric grew increasingly hostile towards Canada, including veiled threats about eliminating the border between the two countries, Carney seized the moment to frame himself as the candidate capable of protecting Canadian sovereignty.
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The former central banker and investment executive promised to reduce Canada’s economic reliance on the United States, despite the daunting reality that bilateral trade accounts for a fifth of Canada’s GDP.
Even in victory, Carney remained clear-eyed about the challenges ahead. “The point is that we can give ourselves far more than the Americans can ever take away,” he told supporters, highlighting the urgent need for national self-reliance.
A Call for Unity Amid Domestic Challenges
Carney also used his speech to issue a call for national unity, acknowledging the geographic and political divisions that had threatened to deliver a Conservative government.
“My message to every Canadian is this: no matter where you live, no matter what language you speak, no matter how you voted, I will always do my best to represent everyone who calls Canada home,” he said.
Despite external threats, Carney faces a complex set of internal challenges: a severe housing shortage, rising living costs, and a growing public distrust of the Liberal Party. Carney pledged a government capable of acting with unprecedented speed and ambition to tackle these interlocking crises.
“We can do things previously thought impossible at speeds we haven’t seen in generations,” he promised.
Preparing for Uncertainty
Carney is expected to speak with Trump in the coming days, a senior Liberal official confirmed. However, the encounter carries uncertainty.
“He is treating his upcoming meeting like he did debate prep during the election: preparing for all possible scenarios,” the source said. “Because he doesn’t know which version of the president he might get.”
The unpredictability of Trump’s presidency presents a formidable challenge for Carney as he seeks to renegotiate aspects of the current trade relationship and protect Canada’s economic interests.
The Difficulty of Diversifying Away from the US
Economic experts agree that redefining Canada’s trade relationships will not be easy. Peter Morrow, an associate professor of economics at the University of Toronto, noted that geography binds Canada and the United States together economically.
“The big question is how much the Canadian federal government wants to pursue closer relations with the United States,” Morrow said. “The challenge for Canada is that it’s not really in a good position to diversify too much from its economic relationship with the United States. Geography just makes it an obvious trading partner.”
Morrow warned that overzealous diversification could risk economic self-sabotage. “If you diversify too much, then it’s almost like you’re trying to pull a Brexit.”
Moreover, renegotiating trade agreements with a U.S. administration that has demonstrated a willingness to abandon previous deals introduces a layer of complexity. “What sorts of concessions do you make in an agreement with a partner who’s shown they’re willing to throw those agreements out the window?” Morrow asked.
A Rising Tide of Economic Nationalism
The election campaign witnessed a noticeable surge in economic nationalism among Canadians. Boycotts of American goods gained traction, and calls for citizens to buy domestically made products became louder.
However, Morrow expressed concern over this inward turn. “Everything we know is that companies that engage in global transactions tend to be more productive than companies that don’t,” he said. “This nationalist turn inward for Canada is really not a good idea.”
Instead, Morrow argued, Canada should broaden its trade horizons by strengthening economic ties with Europe and other global partners.
Rethinking Military and Economic Alliances
The questions surrounding Canada’s dependence on the U.S. extend beyond trade. Defense procurement has also become a contentious issue, with debate intensifying over Canada’s purchase of American-made F-35 fighter jets.
Critics argue that Canada should consider offers from European manufacturers, especially given the risk of the U.S. becoming an unreliable partner. For Carney, diversifying alliances in both defense and economics could become key to his vision of Canadian resilience.
During his brief nine-day tenure as prime minister before calling the snap election, Carney met with French President Emmanuel Macron and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. These engagements signaled his intention to pivot Canada closer to like-minded allies across the Atlantic.
Hosting the G7: A Defining Moment
Carney’s defensive economic positioning will be on full display in June when Canada hosts leaders from G7 countries in Alberta. The summit will offer a critical opportunity for Carney to showcase his leadership on the global stage and reinforce Canada’s commitment to multilateral cooperation.
With the global order in flux, Canada’s engagement with Europe, Asia, and other democratic allies could help fill the void left by a retreating and unpredictable United States.
A Shift in the Canadian Electorate
The existential questions surrounding national sovereignty and identity played a pivotal role in Carney’s victory. Juliette Théorêt, a University of Ottawa student studying defense policy who attended Carney’s victory party, reflected on the election’s defining theme.
“Before Trump, I don’t think national security and national sovereignty were big topics of conversation,” she said. “But threats of [making Canada the] 51st state, and this idea of not having a border between Canada and the U.S.—that really pushed people to unite.”
For many Canadians, Carney’s campaign tapped into a newfound awareness that national independence cannot be taken for granted, especially in a world increasingly shaped by populism, protectionism, and unpredictability.
Charting a New Course
Mark Carney’s election marks not just a change in leadership but the beginning of a new era in Canadian politics and economic policy. His ambition to wean Canada off its reliance on the United States will be fraught with obstacles, from the geographic reality of trade patterns to the inertia of long-standing alliances.
Nevertheless, Carney appears determined to push forward. His message to Canadians is clear: the country must prepare for a future where its prosperity and sovereignty are not guaranteed by its southern neighbour.
In this rapidly changing world, Carney’s government faces the daunting but critical task of redefining Canada’s place on the global stage—an undertaking that may very well define his legacy.
