Federal Liberal MP Andrew Hastie has firmly dismissed any intention to defect to One Nation and has publicly urged his Coalition colleague, former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce, to remain within the coalition fold. Speaking on 2GB ahead of the upcoming parliamentary sitting fortnight, Hastie underscored his loyalty to the Liberal Party of Australia and shared his view that speculation about Joyce’s future is “unhelpful” as the party undertakes rebuilding efforts after its recent election loss. (The Guardian)
Simultaneously, the political context within the Coalition is becoming increasingly volatile. Hastie’s move comes amid internal party tensions over leadership direction, migration policy and climate strategy. In recent weeks, he resigned from the shadow cabinet, signalling deep policy disagreements, especially around immigration and net-zero emissions targets. (Yahoo News Australia)
Coalition Loyalty and Defection Rejection
Hastie’s statement was unequivocal. He told listeners: “I wouldn’t be elected if it wasn’t for the Liberal party … so I won’t be switching.” (Daily Telegraph)
On Joyce, Hastie added: “I hope he stays within the Coalition … all this speculation about One Nation … is unhelpful to our cause right now as we’re trying to rebuild post-election.” (The Guardian)
The comments come as One Nation’s profile continues to rise in national polling, raising concerns within the Coalition about further erosion of its conservative base. (The New Daily)
Hastie’s rejection of a switch signals his intent to remain part of the Liberal platform while also distinguishing his stance on key issues.
Strategic Timing Amid Party Turmoil
This declaration occurs in the midst of a turbulent period for the Coalition. The Liberal Party suffered one of its worst electoral performances in decades in May 2025. Party insiders and analysts point to the following contributing factors:
- A decline in primary vote support, with the party polling around 28 % compared with the government’s 43 %. (The New Daily)
- Policy fractures within the party, especially over migration, net-zero targets and energy policy.
- Key figures on the conservative flank, like Hastie, moving to the backbench to speak more freely on contentious issues. (ABC)
Hastie’s decisions appear to align with his view that the party needs more authenticity and less constraint in policy debates. His backbench move in October followed a letter from Opposition Leader Sussan Ley stating he would not lead the party’s immigration policy. “When it was made clear that I wouldn’t have any leadership in that role, I thought it was time for me to depart,” he said. (Yahoo News Australia)
For the Coalition, Hastie’s public loyalty is a reassurance. But the contrast between his stance and the broader internal tensions raises questions about the party’s coherence going into future election cycles.
Hastie’s call to Joyce also reflects concern over further defections which would carry symbolic weight and could shift voting dynamics in certain seats.
Implications for Coalition Strategy
The developments underscore several strategic implications for the Coalition:
1. Retaining Confidence Within the Party
Hastie’s declaration helps shore up perceptions of loyalty within the Liberal ranks. It sends a message that key MPs are committed to the party and willing to anchor the right-wing flank within the existing structure rather than defect.
2. Protecting Against One Nation Gains
With One Nation polling rising (reported up to 14 % in some recent data) and actively seeking to recruit conservative MPs, the Coalition cannot afford high-profile defections which could validate that shift in the eyes of voters. (Daily Telegraph)
Hastie’s active urging to Joyce reveals the sensitivity of the moment.
3. Managing Internal Policy Divides
The fact that Hastie felt compelled to leave the frontbench so he could speak on immigration and net-zero signals a notable policy divide within the Coalition. These issues risk shaping voter sentiment in coming years, particularly around cost-of-living, housing and national identity. (ANR News)
The party will need coherent messaging on those issues to avoid appearing fragmented.
4. Rebuilding Credibility Before the Next Election
The Coalition’s path forward involves rebuilding after a significant electoral defeat. Strong public loyalty signals help rebuild credibility. Yet they must be paired with policy clarity, unifying vision and engagement with voters whose trust has waned. Hastie’s stance is part of that narrative—but much more needs to follow.
| Key Actor | Position | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Hastie | Staying in Liberal Party; urging Joyce to stay | Signals internal loyalty and stability |
| Barnaby Joyce | Speculation over potential defection | Risk of symbolic loss of Coalition unity |
| One Nation | Rising support; targeting conservative MPs | Competitive threat to Coalition’s base |
| Liberal Party | Recovering from major defeat; policy fractures | Needs clarity to rebuild credibility |
What to Watch in the Coming Weeks
The next fortnight of parliamentary sitting and related media coverage will be critical for several reasons:
- Whether Barnaby Joyce makes any public decision or announcement regarding his party status.
- How the Coalition addresses policy divisions publicly—particularly immigration and climate policy.
- Whether other MPs considered soft on Coalition unity or aligned with One Nation messaging make moves.
- The extent to which the Liberal leadership can project unity while accommodating internal debates and repositioning ahead of the next federal contest.
Actionable Takeaways for Stakeholders
- For party strategists: Monitor membership sentiment in key electorates where One Nation is gaining ground; defections or public statements by MPs create ripple effects.
- For media and analysts: Follow subsequent comments from Hastie and Joyce; signals can indicate the depth of ideological fissures within the Coalition.
- For voters: Understand that while party loyalty matters in the short term, the ability of the Coalition to deliver coherent policy responses to voter concerns—on housing, migration, climate—will shape its future viability.
- For political opponents: Attention to these internal shifts may offer opportunity—either in highlighting division or recruiting support from disaffected elements.
Trending FAQ
Q1: Why is Andrew Hastie ruling out a switch now?
A1: He proclaimed loyalty to the Liberal Party, citing the party’s role in his election success. Publicly rejecting a defection also reinforces internal party cohesion amid broader instability. (Daily Telegraph)
Q2: What is the significance of Barnaby Joyce being urged to stay?
A2: Barnaby Joyce commands a prominent rural profile and speaks for parts of the conservative base. His defection would carry symbolic weight and potentially encourage other shifts. Hastie’s urging reflects that risk.
Q3: How does One Nation’s rise affect the Coalition’s strategy?
A3: With One Nation polling strongly and seeking to recruit Coalition MPs, the conservative vote could split further. The Coalition must retain its base, present coherent policy, and prevent defections to remain competitive. (The New Daily)
Q4: What are the policy divisions inside the Coalition?
A4: Key fault lines include immigration (Hastie argues for cuts and ties to housing stress), net-zero emissions targets (which Hastie rejects as a “straitjacket”), and broader energy and industrial policy. These divide the party’s conservative and moderate wings. (The New Daily)
Q5: What does this mean for the next election?
A5: The Coalition will need to demonstrate policy coherence and unity to rebuild trust. Public loyalty pledges—like Hastie’s—help, but voters will judge on substance. Failure to address core voter concerns could further erode support.
