Marine researchers from the University of Exeter and Plymouth Marine Laboratory emphasize that outdated plankton models threaten our ability to predict and address global climate change impacts. Plankton, vital microscopic organisms, are crucial for carbon cycling, marine productivity, and Earth’s climate stability. However, current models oversimplify their diversity, using decades-old concepts. The study insists on a radical update of these models, incorporating modern biology and collaboration between researchers and computer scientists. Without this overhaul, we risk underestimating biodiversity changes, miscalculating carbon fluxes, and making unreliable predictions about the ocean’s response to warming. Plankton’s central role in Earth’s system is crucial, and accurate models are essential for understanding and mitigating climate change effects.
Plankton, tiny ocean organisms, are crucial to marine ecosystems. Phytoplankton, single-celled algae, perform photosynthesis, converting carbon dioxide into oxygen and forming the ocean’s primary food source. Zooplankton, small drifting animals, consume phytoplankton, passing energy to fish, marine mammals, and human fisheries.
Plankton play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle. When they die or are eaten, their remains sink, storing carbon in the ocean for centuries. This process, known as the “biological pump,” is vital for climate predictions. Changes in plankton populations can impact the ocean’s ability to absorb CO₂, influencing climate regulation.
As ocean temperatures increase and acidity changes, plankton communities experience biodiversity shifts and “plasticity,” which is their ability to adapt, alter physiology, or change growth patterns. Accurately modeling these responses is vital for forecasting future marine productivity and carbon sequestration potential.
Shortcomings of Current Plankton Models
Professor Kevin Flynn of Plymouth Marine Laboratory boldly asserts that reducing plankton biodiversity to a handful of groups in models is a gross oversimplification. These models often limit plankton to 3–10 functional types—such as diatoms, coccolithophores, small flagellates, and a few zooplankton classes—overlooking the vast array of species with unique ecological functions. This reliance on outdated concepts from 30–50 years ago is a disservice to our understanding of global ecosystems.
Professor Flynn highlights that outdated simulation tools from the 1970s and 1980s are still used to study Earth’s complex ecosystems. These early models assumed steady growth rates, fixed nutrient levels, and basic predator-prey dynamics. However, research in the last 20 years has revealed more complex factors like dynamic physiology, mixotrophy (a mix of photosynthesis and predation), and intricate trait trade-offs that these old models fail to address.
Underestimating Biodiversity Shifts
Excluding key species or traits in models can overlook critical changes, like harmful algae blooms that devastate fisheries or change carbon export. These oversights can lead to significant economic and ecological impacts.
Simplified models of plankton growth under different light, temperature, and nutrient conditions can lead to inaccurate predictions of primary production. Overestimating productivity might wrongly imply that fisheries will stay strong, while underestimating it could lead to unnecessary conservation actions. Misplaced Confidence in Carbon Cycling Predictions: Global climate models depend on Earth system modules that include ocean biology. If plankton dynamics are inaccurately represented, predictions of carbon uptake and feedback loops will be incorrect, hindering mitigation strategies and adaptation planning.
Key Recommendations for a Plankton Modelling Revolution
- Professor Daniel Mayor from the University of Exeter emphasizes the need for collaboration between empiricists and modellers in plankton ecology. He points out that many breakthroughs in the field are not reaching modelling teams. Mayor suggests that working closely during model development helps incorporate real-world complexities into the models. To achieve this, he recommends joint workshops, co-mentored PhD projects, and integrated research consortia to bridge the gap between disciplines.
- Revamp core model structures to include dynamic nutrient uptake, temperature-dependent physiology, size-structured predation, mixotrophy, and adaptive life-history strategies. Use trait-based frameworks instead of static functional types, letting community composition arise from individual fitness in response to environmental changes.
- Create Intuitive Modeling Tools: To involve scientists without coding expertise, researchers suggest using graphical interfaces and modular “plug-and-play” components. These tools enable biologists to test ideas, like the impact of a new phytoplankton trait on carbon export, without coding from scratch.
- Invest in Plankton Digital Twin Platforms! Digital twins, virtual copies of physical systems, are gaining traction in fields like engineering and meteorology. A plankton digital twin would merge real-time data from satellites, floats, and research vessels with advanced models to simulate ecosystem dynamics under different climate conditions. These platforms could guide policy by allowing decision-makers to test “what-if” scenarios—such as marine protected areas, nutrient reduction strategies, or geoengineering effects—before actual implementation.
- Plankton ecology programs must integrate simulation modeling as a fundamental skill, similar to how molecular biology adopted computational genomics in the 1980s. Public engagement through outreach events and citizen science platforms can involve people in plankton surveys and data visualization, enhancing understanding of plankton’s significance.
A recent model from the University of Exeter used thermal tolerance, nutrient affinity, and size-based sinking rates for 50 phytoplankton types. By integrating regional ocean circulation data, it accurately predicted cold-water diatoms moving poleward as temperatures rise. This shows that using complex, data-driven models can improve predictions over traditional methods..
UKRI-NERC funded a project to create digital twins of plankton. This initiative aims to develop easy-to-use, modular models for scientists and policymakers to explore various marine scenarios. Despite facing challenges with existing models that missed key biological concepts, the team established a foundation for advanced simulation techniques. This underscores the necessity for better model design and expert collaboration..
Policy Implications and Urgency
Researchers caution that relying on outdated models in international assessments, like the IPCC’s ocean biogeochemistry chapters, could lead to misguided policy decisions in fisheries management, carbon offsetting, and marine conservation. They urge funding agencies, UN bodies, and national governments to prioritize innovative modeling in their climate science agendas to ensure informed decision-making.
Plankton models are crucial for assessing the ocean’s carbon storage capacity, vital for achieving net-zero goals. They guide fisheries quotas and marine planning, essential for food security and coastal protection. Misjudging ecosystem responses can result in policies that either impose excessive costs or fail to avert ecosystem collapse.
A Call to Action: “We Need It Fast”
Plankton are crucial to Earth’s ecosystem, just like forests and grasslands. However, our current models fail to capture their significance. We urgently need a revolution in plankton ecosystem modeling. Rising ocean temperatures, increasing acidification, and expanding deoxygenation put immense pressure on plankton communities. Without strong models, we risk navigating blindly in managing Earth’s vital systems.
Conclusion
The University of Exeter–Plymouth Marine Laboratory warns that outdated plankton models threaten climate science, marine conservation, and global food security. To address this, scientists must collaborate closely, integrate complex data, and create user-friendly simulation tools. This approach will enhance plankton models to accurately reflect their diversity and ecological roles. With the planet’s future at stake, this transformation is urgent.
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