On May 2, voters in Runcorn and Helsby delivered a stinging rebuke to the governing Labour Party, handing a surprise victory to Reform UK. The win, along with losses of nearly 200 council seats across England, prompted Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s immediate admission—“I get it”—that his party must learn hard lessons. While analysts cite the continued toxicity of the Conservative brand, Nigel Farage’s enduring influence, and a general mood of political footlooseness, many observers point to a more enduring force: class. Working-class disaffection with living-cost pressures, public-service strains, and immigration concerns has coalesced around Reform’s hard-line populism, leaving both Labour and the Tories scrambling to respond.
A Return of Class Politics
In the wake of Labour’s Runcorn and Helsby defeat, the party unveiled modest measures: additional funding for under-resourced GP surgeries and hints at tightening student-visa rules. Rumours also swirled of a potential reversal of means-testing for winter fuel payments. Yet these gestures have done little to address the core anxieties of many working-class voters, for whom wage stagnation, housing costs, and perceived uncontrolled migration loom large. In Britain’s current climate, the politics of class—concerns over jobs, incomes and local services—reassert themselves as more potent than culture-war or identity-based appeals.
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A quarter-century ago, Tony Blair extolled the dawn of a “classless society,” arguing that the decline of heavy industry and the rise of a knowledge-driven economy would render traditional divisions obsolete. By championing service-sector growth, expanding higher education, and embracing the entrepreneurial spirit unleashed by the Thatcher era, Blair believed Labour could transcend old left-right battles and build a new, post-industrial consensus.
The Precariat: Unstable Work and Unfulfilled Expectations
That vision faltered as well-paid, unionised jobs in factories and mines gave way to lower-paid, non-union roles in warehouses, call centres, and gig platforms—what economist Guy Standing dubs the “precariat.” Many graduates found themselves overqualified for the service-sector positions they occupied, while those without degrees faced precarious work with few protections. Once-steady towns and neighbourhoods saw incomes flatten and public investment lag. The protracted period of modest growth following the 2008 financial crisis did little to close these divides. Instead, lower-income households bore the brunt of austerity, high energy prices and the shocks of the pandemic.
Geographic and Economic Polarisation
Economic opportunity in the UK remains unevenly distributed. London and the South East boast GDP per capita more than double that of the North East. While affluent enclaves flourish in finance, technology and professional services, former manufacturing hubs struggle with lower pay and underinvestment. Historically, these “red wall” seats—so-called because of their long allegiance to Labour—remained loyal even as local industries vanished. That loyalty broke in 2016 with Brexit and again in 2019, when Boris Johnson’s Conservatives flipped dozens of northern seats. Last year’s general election saw a brief Labour resurgence, but the Runcorn and Helsby by-election underscores how fragile that hold remains.
Two Britains: Divergent Views on Migration and the Environment
This economic cleavage parallels a cultural split. In metropolitan and university towns of the South, middle-class voters tend to favour rejoining the EU, endorse Net Zero policies, and view migration as an economic and cultural boon. In many northern and Midlands communities, concerns over immigration—real or perceived—rank alongside NHS performance and cost-of-living pressures as top voting issues. Attempts by Labour to pivot toward these priorities risk alienating their more liberal, southern base, where identity politics and environmental activism still resonate.
Reform UK’s Populist Surge
Riding this undercurrent of discontent, Reform UK has capitalised on themes of uncontrolled migration, perceived failures in public services, and economic stagnation. Nigel Farage’s party has harnessed frustration over household finances and institutional trust deficits, offering simple—if often divisive—solutions. Its success in local elections and by-elections reveals an appetite among working-class voters for alternatives to Labour’s centrist consensus and the Conservatives’ compromised reputation.
Labour’s Dilemma: Balancing Bread-and-Butter with Broad Coalition Politics
For Sir Keir Starmer, the challenge is existential. His much-vaunted “broad church” coalition—from metropolitan Remainers to northern Leave voters—proves increasingly difficult to sustain. Denis Healey’s adage rings true: when you find yourself in a hole, stop digging. Yet halting austerity measures or softening welfare reforms alone will not rebuild trust. Labour must offer a credible economic vision that addresses chronic underinvestment in infrastructure, education and regional development. Revitalising manufacturing, boosting apprenticeships and ensuring that growth benefits a wider demographic are vital. Only by raising living standards across the UK can Labour safeguard its northern base while retaining allegiance in more prosperous southern constituencies.
The Task Ahead: Structural Reforms and Investment
Economic historians note that Britain’s long-term growth has underperformed compared to peers like Germany and the United States, in part due to low business investment and weak productivity gains. Labour’s Green Prosperity Plan—promising green industrial hubs and transport upgrades—signals intent but lacks detail on funding and execution. To restore confidence, the government must deliver on high-value projects: modernising rail links, expanding affordable housing, and incentivising research and development outside London. A firmer commitment to regional banks and devolved investment funds could channel capital where it is most needed, boosting incomes and job security in the north and Midlands.
Political Implications for the Conservatives
The Conservative Party faces an even bleaker outlook. Toxic brand associations with sleaze scandals, economic mismanagement and internal divisions have driven support to historical lows. Attempts to reclaim working-class voters by adopting tougher immigration stances risk further alienating the party’s affluent, liberal wing in the South East. Without a coherent strategy to address regional disparities, the Tories may find themselves squeezed by Reform UK on the right and the resurgent Liberal Democrats and Greens on the centre-left in southern seats.
Voter Impatience and the Need for Tangible Action
Polling indicates that public patience for incremental or symbolic measures is waning. Voters want real improvements: smoother GP access, housing cost relief, childcare support and living-wage employment. Warm words on social justice or identity issues no longer suffice when household budgets are under siege. As reformist economist Mariana Mazzucato argues, governments must play a proactive role in shaping markets, financing innovation and sharing the rewards of growth equitably. For Labour, embracing such an activist fiscal stance could reconcile its traditional social-democratic roots with modern industrial strategy.
Conclusion: Class as the Enduring Fault Line
The recent by-election results and council losses make clear that class remains Britain’s defining political cleft. Until economic opportunity and living standards improve across all regions, populist alternatives like Reform UK will continue to prosper. The politics of bread and butter—jobs, wages, public services—retain primacy over elite cultural debates. Labour’s path back to sustainable power lies in marrying structural economic reforms with targeted social investments that lift all boats. Only then can the party hope to bridge the two Britains and forge a stable, class-bridging majority.
