Astronomers have been closely tracking asteroid 2024 YR4, a space rock measuring between 130 and 300 feet, as its chances of hitting Earth in 2032 fluctuate. Despite rising probabilities, experts say there’s no reason to panic.
Changing Odds of Impact
Since late January, the impact probability for December 22, 2032, has fluctuated. It was 1.3% on January 29, rose to 1.7% on February 1, then dropped to 1.4% the next day. By Thursday, it peaked at 2.3%, before settling at 2.2% on Friday—about a one-in-45 chance.
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These fluctuations are expected with new asteroid discoveries. Scientists emphasize that additional observations will likely reduce the impact probability over time.
How Scientists Calculate Risk
NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and the European Space Agency’s Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre use sophisticated orbital tracking systems to predict asteroid paths. Initial uncertainty can make Earth seem like a potential target, but as data improves, probabilities are refined.
“It is true that the probability of impact has doubled recently, but that doesn’t mean it will keep doing so,” said Davide Farnocchia, a NASA navigation engineer. “The probability of impact is very small and likely to drop to zero as we keep observing 2024 YR4.”
Tracking 2024 YR4 Until 2028
Observations will continue until April 2025, when the asteroid becomes too distant to track. It will be visible again in 2028, by which time scientists expect to have ruled out any impact risk.
What If It Did Hit?
Though unlikely, an impact could release energy comparable to a nuclear explosion. Potential impact locations currently range from uninhabited ocean regions to parts of South America, Africa, and South Asia.
While the risk remains low, NASA and ESA continue to monitor the asteroid closely. “We don’t get to choose when the next significant asteroid impact will be,” Dr. Farnocchia said. “We just don’t want to take any chances.”
For now, experts urge the public to stay informed but not alarmed. With further tracking, 2024 YR4 is expected to pose no real threat in 2032.
