Thailand’s Constitutional Court has suspended Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra over alleged ethical breaches during a call with Cambodia’s ex-prime minister. This action follows a petition by 36 senators. Until a final decision is made, Deputy Prime Minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit will act as caretaker prime minister. This ruling highlights the instability within Thailand’s political scene and adds pressure on the Pheu Thai-led coalition.
Background: The Leaked Phone Call
- Content of the Conversation
In late June, a private call between Ms. Shinawatra and Mr. Hun Sen was leaked to Thai media. During the call, the prime minister called the former Cambodian leader “uncle” and labeled a senior Thai military commander as an “opponent.” This sparked accusations of disloyalty to the Thai military. - Allegations of Ethical Breach
Senators claim Ms. Shinawatra broke Article 184 of the Thai Constitution, which bans officials from actions that question their “honesty, morality, or ethics.” They argue her respect for a foreign leader and negative comments about a Thai military officer violated her responsibilities and threatened national security. - Regional Context: Preah Vihear Dispute
The call took place during rising tensions over the Preah Vihear temple border dispute, a long-standing conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. Critics of Ms. Shinawatra argue her friendly approach might weaken Thailand’s stance and strengthen Cambodia’s claims.
Constitutional Court’s Decision
- Suspension Order
The Constitutional Court, in a 7–2 decision, found “reasonable cause to suspect” Ms. Shinawatra of violating the constitution. The judges accepted the senators’ petition and suspended her from all prime ministerial duties during the case. - Interim Cabinet Reshuffle
After the suspension, the government made a small cabinet change. Ms. Shinawatra stays as Minister of Culture, a symbolic position, while DPM Suriya Juangroongruangkit takes over as acting prime minister. This setup maintains government operations until the court’s final decision. - Response Timeline
Under Thai law, Ms. Shinawatra has 15 days to present her defense and evidence. The court will hold hearings and decide her fate, which could lead to her permanent removal from office, a five-year political ban, or her exoneration.
Political Fallout and Coalition Fragility
- Coalition Collapse Threat
The suspension deepens divisions in the ruling coalition. Days before the court’s decision, the coalition’s second-largest party withdrew support, leaving Ms. Shinawatra’s government with a slim majority in the 500-member House. Opposition parties plan to file a no-confidence motion once Ms. Shinawatra’s suspension ends. - Approval Ratings and Public Protests
In June, polls revealed Ms. Shinawatra’s approval rating dropped from 30% in March to 9%, due to public anger over a leaked call and dissatisfaction with border security management. Over the weekend, thousands protested in Bangkok, demanding her resignation, labeling her an “enemy of the state” and waving Thai flags. - Dynastic Politics Under Scrutiny
Ms. Shinawatra, 36, is the third in her family’s political lineage. Her father, Thaksin, and aunt, Yingluck, were both prime ministers before being removed—Thaksin by a 2006 military coup and Yingluck by a 2014 court decision. Analysts suggest this crisis might signal the end of the family’s political stronghold in Thailand.
Legal and Dynastic Complications
- Thaksin’s Lèse-Majesté Case
Thaksin is dealing with a lese-majesté case in Bangkok’s Criminal Court due to a 2015 interview in South Korea, accused of insulting the monarchy, which could lead to 15 years in prison. He denies these claims. His 2023 return from a 15-year exile to serve a sentence for conflict-of-interest charges marks a significant political event in Thailand. - Parole and Hospital Detention Scrutiny
Thailand’s Supreme Court is examining Thaksin’s six-month hospital stay during his prison sentence. If found improper, he may return to prison, increasing pressure on the Shinawatra group.
Expert Analysis and Implications
- Internal Party Dynamics
Dr. Petra Alderman from LSE’s Saw Swee Hock South-East Asia Centre described Ms. Shinawatra’s suspension as the start of a long legal fight. She remarked that moving Ms. Shinawatra to the Culture Ministry was a way to keep her engaged, but doubted if a leader suspended for ethics could stay credible in government. - Coalition Stability
Dr. Alderman suggests that the Pheu Thai government is unstable due to its slim majority and alliances with diverse parties. She believes this might mark the end of the Shinawatra family’s direct role in Thai politics, anticipating more defections and possible early elections. - Regional Security Considerations
The Preah Vihear temple dispute is central to the crisis. Early 2024 border clashes led many Thai nationalists to support a tough approach. Critics saw Ms Shinawatra’s leaked call for peace and avoiding soldier casualties as weakening Thailand’s sovereignty and deterrence.
Next Steps in the Judicial Process
- Court Hearings
After Ms. Shinawatra’s official reply, the Constitutional Court will hold oral hearings, probably continuing into late July. Lawyers from both sides will argue about the meaning of constitutional ethics rules and the details of the phone call. - Potential Outcomes
If guilty, Ms. Shinawatra will be barred from politics for five years, prompting a new prime minister’s selection by the coalition. If cleared, she can return to her role, but public trust and coalition unity will still be severely harmed. - Impact on Governance
During the caretaker period, DPM Juangroongruangkit must handle budget approvals, COVID-19 recovery, and regional diplomacy, including ASEAN summits and border talks with Cambodia and Myanmar. Securing parliamentary backing is vital for government operations.
Conclusion
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s suspension is a pivotal moment in Thai politics, potentially altering governance and the future of a long-dominant political dynasty. As the Constitutional Court reviews the case, Thailand confronts increased political instability, fragile coalitions, and public dissatisfaction. This situation highlights the intricate dynamics of dynastic influence, constitutional law, and regional security that will shape Thailand’s near-term trajectory.
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