In an era of shifting alliances and emerging power blocs, the age-old adage that “there are no permanent friends nor permanent foes, only permanent interests” has never felt more apt. Trade wars, strategic realignments, and titanic global challenges from Ukraine to Palestine test the durability of relationships once taken for granted. Yet they also underscore the capacity of sovereign states to recalibrate, cooperate, and—even after prolonged estrangement—find common ground when it serves their national interests.
The U.S. and China: From “Liberation Day” Tariffs to a Tentative Truce
In May 2025, President Donald Trump’s administration triggered a seismic shock in global commerce by slapping so-called “Liberation Day” reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports—peaking at 145 percent in some sectors. The stated aim was to punish Beijing for perceived unfair trade practices and bolster domestic manufacturing. Yet the shockwaves ricocheted far beyond U.S. shores, fanning fears of a full-blown Sino-American decoupling.
Two weeks later, however, Washington and Beijing announced a joint suspension of 90 percent of those punitive duties for 90 days. From the outset, U.S. tariffs fell to an effective average of 30 percent, while China’s duties on American goods retreated to 10 percent. Though not heralding a full restoration of cordiality, the accord signaled both powers’ recognition of mutual economic pain and the utility of dialogue.
“The hike to 145 percent marked our lowest point with China,” said one U.S. trade official on background. “But by agreeing to pause most of these duties, both sides showed they still value negotiation over unending confrontation.”
EU and China: A Relationship Tested by External Pressures
For decades, Europe and China cultivated a largely harmonious partnership. By 2022, China was the EU’s top source of imports—supplying everything from smartphones to solar panels—and its third-largest export market. Corporate titans such as Siemens, BMW, and Airbus deepened industrial ties, while academic exchanges and cultural initiatives flourished.
Yet under mounting political pressure from the United States, Brussels began to tighten the screws in 2024–25. Restrictions on Chinese tech firms, stricter screening of investments, and suspension of certain research collaborations signaled that Europe was rethinking its “everything but weapons” approach.
Subheading: The Quest for “Strategic Autonomy”
Brussels insists these measures are motivated less by hostility toward China than by a desire for “strategic autonomy”—the capacity to act independently of Washington and Beijing alike. The EU’s new mantra emphasizes balanced relations: continuing to cooperate on clean energy, climate change, and market access while safeguarding sensitive technologies in semiconductors and telecommunications.
“Europe wants to be a rule-setter, not a rule-taker,” noted a senior EU diplomat. “That means we work with China when it aligns with our interests—such as the green transition—but we also defend our technologies, values, and jobs.”
BRICS Expansion: A Global South Alternative
As the West recalibrates its China ties, many nations of the Global South are turning to alternative forums for diplomatic and economic engagement. The BRICS grouping—originally Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—has exploded into a network of fifteen members and partners, with recent accession announcements from Indonesia, UAE, Egypt, Argentina, and others.
Subheading: Broadening the Club
Indonesia’s formal membership in January 2025 underscored Jakarta’s desire to diversify its partnerships beyond ASEAN and the G20. Malaysia, as ASEAN chair, has likewise deepened its BRICS affiliation to leverage development financing and technological cooperation. Thailand, Vietnam, and Nigeria count themselves among BRICS partners, hoping to tap the New Development Bank for infrastructure projects and gain a louder voice in global economic governance.
For these countries, BRICS is less an ideological bloc than a pragmatic platform: it can channel Chinese investment without overtly antagonizing Western markets, facilitate South-South trade in local currencies, and foster collaboration on climate resilience, agriculture, and digital infrastructure.
Subheading: Reinforcing Sovereignty
BRICS also appeals as a counterweight to what many perceive as Western “conditionalities” on human rights, governance, and market liberalization. Membership affirms each nation’s right to chart its own development path, raising the specter of “de-dollarization” and greater flexibility in foreign policy.
“In BRICS, we find peers who understand our histories of colonialism and unequal treaties,” said a Malaysian trade minister. “We seek partnerships, not patronage.”
Russia–Ukraine: Enduring Conflict, Elusive Solutions
Despite these new alignments, classic geopolitical rivalries persist. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 remains a standoff of existential proportions. Western sanctions have isolated Moscow, while Ukraine’s military and civilian toll has mounted into the hundreds of thousands.
Diplomatic efforts—spanning U.S., EU, and even Chinese mediation overtures—have failed to broker a lasting ceasefire. President Vladimir Putin and former U.S. President Trump have shown little personal rapport, and high-level shuttle diplomacy has yet to yield breakthrough.
“The tragedy in Ukraine reminds us that some disputes can calcify, producing bitter, seemingly intractable enmity,” said a veteran European negotiator. “Even when both sides recognize the costs, finding terms for peace is fiendishly difficult.”
Israel–Palestine: A Century-Old Quagmire
Longer still is the Israel–Palestine conflict, which erupted in 1948 and has withstood countless peace initiatives. Washington remains Israel’s staunchest backer, while many Global South nations—South Africa chief among them—lend vocal support to Palestinian statehood.
The International Court of Justice heard South Africa’s genocide petition against Israel in The Hague, even as U.S. diplomats warned of diplomatic repercussions. Jerusalem accuses Pretoria of “politicizing” human rights, while South African leaders cite international law and historical parallels with apartheid.
Subheading: Can Decades of Hostility End?
If any dispute defies the adage of flexible allegiances, it is this one. Yet even here, periodic negotiations—Oslo Accords, Camp David talks, Arab-Israeli normalization with the UAE and others—demonstrate that even the most entrenched foes can sometimes set aside grievances for limited cooperation on water sharing, security coordination, and economic ventures.
“When you look at the history, there have been moments—brief, fragile—when dialogue replaced bullets,” observed a Middle East analyst. “No one suggests a final peace is near, but small windows of engagement can and do open.”
The Permanent Flux of Global Politics
The past year alone has seen alliances fray and then partially mend, from U.S.–China tariff skirmishes to EU’s cautious re-engagement with Beijing, from the expansion of BRICS to the relentless strains of Ukraine and the Levant. In each case, national interests—economic growth, security assurances, geopolitical influence—have driven both rupture and rapprochement.
Subheading: Principles over Pieties
Even as conflicts endure, the broader trend is unmistakable: states that once stood as monolithic allies or implacable adversaries find that rigid loyalties can become liabilities. Hard power must be supplemented by soft power—trade ties, multilateral forums, cultural exchanges—if long-term stability and prosperity are to be secured.
“Global politics is a continuous balancing act,” says Dr. Elena Martínez, an international relations scholar. “When interests change—say, energy needs shift, new leaders emerge, or technology rewrites the rules—states adjust their policies accordingly. That doesn’t mean principles are abandoned, but that policy must remain adaptable.”
Subheading: The Road Ahead
As 2025 progresses, Washington and Beijing will likely resume tariff negotiations, while Brussels fine-tunes its technology diplomacy. BRICS will convene its next summit with an eye to expanding membership and refining its lending practices. Meanwhile, conflict zones from Ukraine to Gaza will test the resolve of international law and the capacity of rival powers to broker peace.
In this kaleidoscopic landscape, one truth endures: in global politics, there are no lifelong friends or permanent enemies—only ever-shifting constellations of interest, alliance, and rivalry. Navigating this flux requires not only shrewd diplomacy but also an honest appraisal of one’s own national priorities. For all its dangers, today’s multipolar order also offers unprecedented opportunities for cooperation across old divides. As states learn to “friend the enemy and enemy the friend” when necessity dictates, the possibility of pragmatic, if provisional, concord remains very much alive.
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