On the third consecutive day of open conflict, Israel and Iran expanded their military operations against each other, resulting in hundreds of casualties on both sides. President Donald Trump has publicly called for an end to hostilities, warning Iran not to target U.S. assets in the region. As G7 leaders prepare to convene in Canada, Washington’s ability to restrain its closest ally appears increasingly limited, even as attempts at high-level mediation continue.
Background: From Covert Strikes to Open Warfare
Tensions between Israel and Iran reached a critical juncture on Friday when Israeli warplanes struck multiple targets linked to Iran’s nuclear programme. The IDF reported precision raids against uranium enrichment tunnels at Natanz and missile production facilities near Isfahan. In retaliation, Iran launched more than 100 drones and some 270 ballistic and cruise missiles toward Israeli territory over the weekend.
Day Three Escalation: Targets and Toll
On Saturday night, Israel broadened its offensive to include Iran’s energy infrastructure. A major fuel depot outside Tehran was set ablaze, while oil pipelines and a refinery in Bushehr province were also hit. Early on Sunday, the IDF issued evacuation warnings to civilians living near defence and arms-manufacturing sites, and later conducted a rare daylight raid over Tehran itself.
Iran’s counterattack involved at least 70 missiles, of which an estimated 22 evaded Israel’s multi-tiered air-defence systems. One missile struck a northern Haifa refinery, disrupting pipeline operations though causing no immediate casualties, according to the Bazan Group’s statement to the Tel Aviv stock exchange. Another barrage killed 14 civilians in Bat Yam, south of Tel Aviv, collapsing part of a high-rise apartment block and injuring hundreds more. Israeli rescue teams and soldiers of the Home Front Command have since been searching the rubble for survivors, as civilians of all backgrounds help clear streets and care for the wounded.
In Tehran, an apartment building housing young families collapsed under Israeli fire, killing at least 30 children and more than 100 other civilians. Firefighters laboured through the night, while distraught residents described “the smell of death” and scenes of chaos as they searched for relatives amidst the smoke and dust. Nationwide, hospitals reported over 138 fatalities and hundreds of injuries since Saturday’s dawn strike.
Political Leadership Speaks Out
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Bat Yam on Sunday, promising retaliation for what he termed “premeditated murder of civilians.” He vowed that “Iran will pay a very heavy price” and raised the spectre of deepening the campaign—perhaps even targeting underground nuclear sites beyond the reach of current munitions.
In Tehran, President Masoud Pezeshkian appealed for unity in the face of aggression. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi signalled willingness to halt further strikes if Israeli attacks ceased, framing de-escalation as a potential path forward. Yet the Revolutionary Guards have shown no sign of restraining missile launches until their demands are met.
U.S. Involvement and Constraints
President Trump, addressing America’s largest military parade in decades, reiterated U.S. backing for Israel’s security but warned Tehran: “If we are attacked… the full strength and might of the U.S. Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before.” He also claimed to be working “behind the scenes” on a peace deal, posting on Truth Social that “we will have PEACE, soon, between Israel and Iran!”
Despite these declarations, Trump’s administration has resisted direct military engagement. A senior U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that the U.S. would not consider targeting Iranian political leaders unless American lives or facilities are directly threatened. Washington continues to supply Israel with advanced munitions, but stops short of entering the conflict.
Diplomatic Efforts amid Rising Stakes
G7 leaders, en route to their summit in Canada, are expected to press Trump to prevent further escalation and steer Israel toward a ceasefire. U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff was slated to attend nuclear talks in Oman on June 15, aiming to curb Iran’s uranium enrichment in exchange for sanction relief. Israel’s pre-emptive strikes disrupted those negotiations, and Iran has since suspended talks, accusing the U.S. of colluding with Israel.
Nonetheless, quiet channels of communication remain open. Trump has spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Qatar’s Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, both of whom have direct lines to Tehran. Oman’s Sultan Haitham bin Tariq al-Said also phoned German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, underscoring European concern over the conflict’s widening scope.
Regional Ramifications
Hezbollah, long Iran’s most formidable proxy, saw its command structure decimated in late 2024. Israel’s 2024 strikes in southern Lebanon, which killed numerous senior officials, precipitated Hezbollah’s near collapse and a U.S.-brokered ceasefire in November. With Syria’s Assad regime weakened and Turkey asserting influence among former rebel groups, Iran’s capacity to project power in the Levant has sharply diminished.
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Yet Iran retains loyal proxies in Iraq and Yemen, as well as sizeable missile and drone arsenals. Regional security analysts warn that further Iranian attacks on Gulf oil exports or strategic chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz could imperil global energy markets and provoke allied responses from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or even Western naval forces.
Military Assessment: Air Defense and Attrition
Israeli military officials acknowledge that no defence system—Iron Dome for short-range rockets or David’s Sling and Arrow for missiles—can guarantee 100 percent interception. Israel’s multi-layered network achieved an interception rate exceeding 90 percent, but the volume of Iranian projectiles overwhelmed some sectors. The IDF has signalled intentions to target “dual-use” facilities—those serving civilian and military purposes—to degrade Iran’s remaining missile production and logistics.
Humanitarian Impact
Civilians on both sides bear the brunt of the conflict. In northern Israel, widespread power outages and water disruptions followed damaged pipelines and refineries. In Tehran, public transport ground to a halt, and families queued at pharmacies for painkillers. International humanitarian organisations have called for immediate corridors to evacuate the injured and deliver medical supplies.
Outlook: Paths to De-Escalation
Netanyahu’s declared aim of regime change in Tehran starkly contrasts with Trump’s more cautious approach. While Israel may pursue deeper strikes on nuclear facilities such as Fordow—deep-buried beneath Mount Tamar—that effort likely requires U.S. munitions and intelligence support. Yet Washington’s veto of an assassination plot against Iran’s Supreme Leader demonstrates America’s reluctance to embrace Israel’s most extreme strategies.
Whether diplomatic overtures can restore a fragile ceasefire hinges on mutual restraint. Iran’s willingness to halt retaliatory strikes “if Israeli attacks stop” suggests a conditional opening. G7 pressure, paired with quiet Arab-led mediation, may yet avert an all-out regional conflagration.
Conclusion
As Israel and Iran exchange rounds of airstrikes on the third day of open war, the broader Middle East braces for potentially catastrophic spill-over effects. While both sides proclaim their readiness to intensify the campaign, international actors—from the U.S. and European powers to Gulf and Omani intermediaries—are scrambling to contain the conflict. With civilian tolls mounting and strategic targets expanding, the imperative for an immediate ceasefire grows ever more urgent, even as each side insists that victory—or survival—lies only in pushing the offensive further.
