Iran is likely to push back against a key proposal from the United States to relocate its enriched uranium stockpile to a third country—such as Russia—as part of renewed nuclear negotiations aimed at curbing Tehran’s nuclear programme. The suggestion, raised during initial talks in Muscat, Oman, has emerged as a major sticking point in efforts to revive a broader diplomatic agreement.
The Biden administration, which is seeking to contain Iran’s nuclear progress without sparking a military confrontation, views the offshoring of the stockpile as a central safeguard against Iran’s ability to develop a nuclear weapon. However, Iran’s leadership sees such a move as both politically risky and strategically unwise, especially after the 2018 collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) following the US withdrawal under then-President Donald Trump.
Tehran’s Concerns Rooted in Past Setbacks
Iranian officials, led in the talks by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, argue that any uranium held outside of Iran would leave the country vulnerable in the event of another US policy reversal. If the US were to walk away from a future deal, Iran would have to restart enrichment from scratch—something Tehran views as an unfair consequence of American noncompliance.
Instead, Iran is offering a compromise: allow the stockpile to remain within its borders under the supervision of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Tehran believes this arrangement would preserve its strategic security while still ensuring international oversight.
This position was made clear during the Muscat talks, which were conducted largely via indirect channels with Oman serving as the mediator. However, diplomatic sources confirmed that at least one direct exchange between Araghchi and Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, took place.
Rome to Host Next Round Amid Shifting Diplomatic Landscape
In a move that signals shifting alliances in European diplomacy, the next round of nuclear talks is scheduled to take place in Rome on Saturday. Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, considered to have close ties with Donald Trump, agreed to host the negotiations—a gesture that some analysts see as an attempt by Trump to marginalise the traditional “E3” (France, Germany, and the UK) from future discussions.
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The US Vice President, JD Vance, is also expected in Rome during the Easter weekend, underscoring the political significance of the venue change.
Mohamed Amersi, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, commented: “Meloni’s role highlights the growing personal rapport between Italy and Trump. If Italy becomes the main European interlocutor, it could signal a sidelining of France, Germany, and the UK in the US-Iran dialogue moving forward.”
High Stakes for Iran Amid Economic Struggles
Iran is under mounting economic pressure and eager to lift sanctions to attract foreign investment. After the 2018 US withdrawal from the JCPOA and subsequent sanctions, many foreign companies ceased operations in Iran. A new agreement would need to offer robust insurance options and legal protections to re-engage international firms.
Early discussions on investment insurance are already underway, aimed at preventing the kind of economic collapse that followed the last breakdown in US-Iran relations. However, any such guarantees hinge on lifting US restrictions, which remain a central bargaining chip.
Iran’s insistence on retaining its stockpile is also rooted in lessons from the past. Tehran fears that once its assets are out of its control, it will lose leverage if the US again reneges on a deal.
Regional Tensions Linger Outside Nuclear Framework
So far, Trump’s team has chosen to isolate nuclear issues from other aspects of the US-Iran relationship, particularly Iran’s regional activities and support for armed groups in the Middle East. This decision has frustrated US hawks and key allies like Israel, who argue that Iran’s influence operations in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen must also be addressed.
Iran, however, contends that it is the target—not the aggressor—in regional conflicts. It accuses Israel of encroaching on Syrian, Palestinian, and Lebanese territory, and maintains that its presence in these regions is limited and defensive in nature.
Iran’s regional reach has been challenged in recent months by several setbacks: the weakening of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime, military pressure on Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and American drone strikes on Houthi assets in Yemen. These developments have forced Iran to scale back some of its activities, though it continues to assert its strategic relevance in the region.
Future of the Talks Hinges on Stockpile Dispute
The coming round of talks in Rome will likely focus on the fate of Iran’s uranium reserves. Washington insists that moving the stockpile out of Iran is critical to verifying its peaceful intentions. Tehran, wary of a repeat betrayal, is expected to resist fiercely.
If the US pushes too hard on the issue without offering assurances, the talks may stall. Conversely, if Iran concedes without securing guarantees, its leadership risks significant domestic backlash.
With both sides facing domestic and international pressures, the fate of the stockpile may ultimately determine whether a new nuclear deal is feasible—or whether the region edges closer to military confrontation.
