Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian declared that Tehran will halt its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) after recent air strikes by the U.S. and Israel on its nuclear sites. This decision, lacking clear timelines or details, intensifies Iran’s ongoing conflict with the UN nuclear agency and threatens to weaken global efforts to oversee Iran’s nuclear activities.
Background: Iran, the IAEA and the Non-Proliferation Treaty
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), founded in 1957, acts as the world’s nuclear watchdog. It ensures countries adhere to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). This treaty, signed by nations including Iran, mandates that they do not develop nuclear weapons and permits the IAEA to perform regular inspections to verify that their nuclear programs are peaceful.
In February, the IAEA declared Iran in “serious non-compliance” with NPT safeguards for not explaining uranium particles at undeclared sites. Israel used this report to justify air strikes on Iran’s uranium facilities on June 13. Iran accuses the IAEA of bias and claims it provided a pretext for these military actions.
Details of the Suspension Order
President Pezeshkian declared on state TV that Iran will stop all “cooperation and collaboration” with IAEA inspectors and technical teams. The announcement did not clarify if Iranian facilities would be closed to inspections or provide a timeline for resuming cooperation.
We are ending our voluntary cooperation with the IAEA,” Pezeshkian declared. “This action responds to the IAEA’s role in shielding foreign attacks on our nuclear facilities.” The statement criticized the IAEA for overlooking Israeli breaches of non-proliferation rules and not condemning attacks on Iran.
IAEA Response and Operational Status
The IAEA in Vienna hasn’t officially heard from Iran about the suspension’s details. “We’re waiting for Iran’s government to explain which parts of our cooperation are impacted,” said the spokesperson. “Our inspectors in Iran are still working until told to stop.
A diplomat, anonymously, confirmed that IAEA inspectors remain at Iranian sites. Yet, the future of regular monitoring is uncertain, affecting access to centrifuge halls, uranium mines, and conversion plants. The catalyst: US and Israeli air strikes.
Two days after U.S. stealth bombers allegedly hit underground sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan with precise “bunker-buster” bombs, operations were halted. Satellite images reviewed by the Associated Press revealed damage to tunnel entrances at the Fordow enrichment facility. This led Iranian teams to use cranes and excavators for urgent repairs.
Israel asserted that their attacks delayed Iran’s nuclear weapons program significantly and safeguarded global security. Iranian authorities, however, report over 900 civilian and security personnel deaths, while international human rights groups estimate the casualties to be over 1,000. President Pezeshkian condemned the bombings as an “act of war,” warranting a break in relations with an Agency he claims has “lost all impartiality.
Iran’s hardliners dismiss diplomacy with the West, claiming sanctions and threats persist despite Iran’s compromises. President Pezeshkian, seen as pragmatic, halts IAEA cooperation, bowing to pressure from conservative government factions and the Revolutionary Guard Corps, who view oversight as a sovereignty breach.
The decision risks further isolating Iran and endangers the potential revival of nuclear talks with the U.S. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in an interview with CBS News, showed cautious optimism about diplomacy’s future. He stated, “The doors of diplomacy will never slam shut,” but warned that negotiations “will not restart as quickly as some hope.”
International Reactions
Israel slammed Iran’s move as a blatant breach of nuclear commitments. Foreign Minister Gideon Saar called on Europe to trigger the “snapback” mechanism, reinstating UN sanctions from the 2015 nuclear deal. However, Europe hesitated, worried that escalation might undermine their efforts to keep Iran’s nuclear activities in check without a formal U.S. return to the deal. The U.S. backed the IAEA, with National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby stating strong opposition to Iran halting cooperation with the agency. He emphasized the importance of transparency and verification in preventing nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. Kirby also mentioned that the U.S. would continue supporting the IAEA’s monitoring efforts with both technical and financial aid.
Russia and China, key UN Security Council members and IAEA supporters, voiced concern but avoided outright condemnation. China’s foreign ministry urged all parties to “exercise restraint” and maintain open diplomatic channels.
Iran’s suspension impacts the IAEA’s verification of nuclear activities. Inspections of enrichment, environmental sampling at fuel plants, and surveillance of spent fuel storage might stop soon. Without these, the world can’t trust Iran’s peaceful intentions.
In the long run, the suspension could trigger a regional arms race. Israel is thought to have nuclear weapons but hasn’t confirmed this or allowed IAEA inspections. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are interested in nuclear energy and might consider developing weapons if Iran progresses. Weakening safeguards could disrupt non-proliferation efforts built over decades.
Uncertain Path Forward for Diplomacy
Reviving the JCPOA or forming a new agreement faces new challenges. U.S. President Trump’s 2018 exit from the JCPOA and the reintroduction of intense sanctions disrupted international collaboration. European countries—France, Germany, and the UK—have since worked to maintain the Agreement’s restrictions while expanding its scope to cover missile limitations and regional security assurances.
Iran halting cooperation with the IAEA undermines verification in future agreements. Without inspections, ensuring sanctions relief is unfeasible. Even if the U.S. tries to reengage, any deal must tackle Iran’s monitoring refusal, a significant concession likely opposed by critics in both Washington and Tehran.
Potential Domestic Consequences in Iran
Iran’s economy is heavily impacted by U.S. sanctions, worsened by poor management and COVID-19. Hardliners see the sanctions as resistance to foreign meddling, but many Iranians fear more isolation and economic hardship. Despite limited public opinion data due to Iran’s secretive politics, most people seem to support a nuclear deal to reduce sanctions.
President Pezeshkian’s risky move might fail. By halting IAEA cooperation, he could strengthen the Revolutionary Guard, who benefit from illegal oil and arms trades. If diplomacy fails, Iran’s economy may shrink, worsening unemployment and social unrest.
IAEA’s Next Moves and Contingency Plans
In Vienna, the IAEA faces a critical moment. Director General Rafael Grossi cautions that halting cooperation might push the Agency to pursue new legal actions via the UN Security Council. Yet, with Russia and China frequently blocking Western resolutions, reaching agreement on sanctions seems improbable.
The IAEA could use “technical measures” like satellite monitoring and open-source data analysis without needing approval from the host state. However, these methods provide less certainty compared to direct inspections, potentially missing crucial information about hidden enrichment or secret facilities.
Grossi should strengthen ties with Iran’s neighbors—Oman, Pakistan, and Kazakhstan—to boost informal nuclear information exchange. However, without direct access, the IAEA’s ability to verify NPT compliance is weakened.
Conclusion
Iran’s halt in working with the IAEA is a risky move that heightens tensions over nuclear checks, regional safety, and global anti-nuclear spread rules. By removing IAEA inspectors, Iran raises questions about its claims of peaceful nuclear goals and risks sparking a wider arms race in the Middle East.
Global attempts to reestablish a strong inspection system and achieve a comprehensive agreement encounter significant challenges. With diplomatic avenues narrowing and military tensions rising, the world anxiously observes whether Iran will choose cooperation or further isolation. The next few weeks are crucial, potentially deciding if the global non-proliferation framework can endure one of its toughest challenges since the Cold War’s conclusion.
